NCAA Basketball Tournament

Seed-By-Conference Analysis: Committee Loves the Big East and ACC

Matt Snyder — Mon, 16 Mar 2009 18:00:00 EST

Filed under: A-10, ACC, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, America East, A-Sun, Big South, BSC, BWC, CAA, C-USA, Great West, Horizon League, Ivy League, MAAC, MAC, MEAC, MVC, MWC, NEC, OVC, Pac-10, Patriot League, SEC, SoCon, Southland, SWAC, Sun Belt, The Summit, WCC, WAC, Big Sky, Big West, Midwest Region, West Region, South Region, East Region

Among the big story lines from Sunday's filling out of the NCAA basketball tournament field, discussions of conferences who are "overrated" and "underrated" dominated the discussion. Specifically, fans of so-called mid-major teams cried foul, and the masses proclaimed the selection committee was biased in favor of the Big Ten and Pac-10 conferences.

The biggest issue I have with this instant "analysis" is that it's not analysis at all. Saying the NCAA thought the Big Ten was on-level with the ACC and Big East simply because they were allotted the same number of teams is -- with apologies to Bob Knight -- just plain stupid.

You see, it's easy to just look at the number of bids and act like that's how the NCAA views individual conferences. It's simple, and people like simple. Thus, it's the approach simpletons take, because they aren't capable of more analytical thought. Dive deeper, though. Do you really think the committee thought the Big Ten was on-level with the Big East when the Big East got three number one seeds and the Big Ten only received one Sweet 16 seed? Does that really, honestly sound even to you?

So here we are, with your guide on judging how the selection committee seriously judged conference strength. I went through every game and just picked the favored seed to win. Meaning eight beats nine, but then loses to one. And so on. We'll call the figure the "expected record," and this will give us a gauge on how strong the selection committee truly felt a conference was.

Big East

Number of teams: 7
Seeds: 1, 1, 1, 3, 3, 6, 6
Expected record: 20-6 (including three Final Four teams and one National Champion
Comments: See, this is far and away the strongest conference according to the committee. Look at those seeds. The seventh entrant from the league was awarded a six-seed. In fact, this has to be the best conference of all-time in terms of what they received from the committee -- as long as you don't get hung up on the number of bids. Their average seed is a three.

ACC

Number of teams: 7
Seeds: 1, 2, 4, 5, 7, 7, 10
Expected record: 13-7
Comments: Another conference that impressed the NCAA enough to get lots of favorable seeds. An interesting discrepancy -- which Seth Davis pointed out on the Selection Show -- is seeing Maryland receive a 10-seed while Wisconsin garnered a 12. How about Boston College landing a seven-seed despite an RPI of 60? These are just two illustrations of how highly the committee favored the ACC to other conferences (aside from the Big East, of course).

Big 12

Number of teams: 6
Seeds: 2, 3, 3, 7, 8, 9
Expected record: 9-6
Comments: They received less teams than the Big Ten and equal to the Pac-10, but got much better bang for their buck with three Sweet 16 seeds and an Elite Eight.

Big Ten

Number of teams: 7
Seeds: 2, 5, 5, 8, 10, 10, 12
Expected record: 6-7
Comments: Seriously? This is an overrated conference? They finished 2nd in conference RPI, and only got one Sweet 16 seed. Three of their seeds are of the one-and-done variety. Knowing this, can you seriously tell me the committee had bias toward the conference? The strength of the conference this year was the depth, but there was an admitted lack of elite teams. The seedings accurately reflected this. By the way -- Minnesota (42), Michigan (44), and Wisconsin (45) were all a bit better than Maryland (55) in the RPI. They were all seeded equal to or worse than the Terrapins. If Penn State made the tourney, the Big Ten haters would have a case. Instead, they don't.

Pac-10

Number of teams: 6
Seeds: 4, 6, 6, 7, 10, 12
Expected record: 5-6
Comments: Arizona (62 RPI) is the one team in the whole tourney that seems egregiously invited. Other than that, though, the conference didn't get a ton of credit. Only one Sweet 16 seed, and a four at that.

Mountain West

Number of teams: 2
Seeds: 5, 8
Expected record: 2-2
Comments: Well, they liked the teams they allowed in the tourney. Obviously, it's tough to imagine San Diego State sporting a 34 RPI in a "major" conference and not making the Dance. I'm actually very surprised they gave BYU an eight and then dropped everyone else off the board. It's not like BYU and Utah were playing at such a different level than New Mexico, SDSU, and UNLV.

Atlantic 10

Number of teams: 3
Seeds: 4, 11, 11
Expected record: 2-3
Comments: Again, a head-scratcher. Was Xavier really seven whole seeds better than Dayton?

SEC

Number of teams: 3
Seeds: 8, 9, 13
Expected record: 1-3
Comments: Simply put: The committee believes the SEC sucks this year. In fact, had Butler won the Horizon League tourney, it's conceivable to think they would have flipped seeds with LSU and the SEC would have come away with zero expected wins. If you want to proclaim power conference bias, you better look elsewhere.

Everyone Else

There are only six wins left from teams not in the above eight conferences. Memphis, as a two-seed, is expected to win three games before bowing out. Gonzaga, a four, is slated to take two. The lone remaining win? Well, someone has to win the play-in game. Every other team in the field, 21 of them from non-"power" conferences, has a worse seed than their first-round foe.

And yes, though I'm a Big Ten fan, it's really easy for me to admit St. Mary's got jobbed. We're talking about a 48 RPI from a team who was missing their best player for a decent chunk of the season. He's healthy enough to play now, so they should have included them in the field. This is the type of error (Mary's and/or SDSU vs. 'Zona and/or Maryland) that makes people believe the committee is biased.

Final Thought

This is how you should judge conference performance in the tournament. Don't be a simpleton. To illustrate the point, here's an example: If the Big East goes 14-7 and the Big Ten goes 10-7, I'm guessing there will be a bunch of people hanging their hats on the superior performance by the Big East. In actuality, as outlined above, the Big Ten would be exceeding expectations with a 10-7 record. Thus, they were underrated. The Big East would have fallen short of the lofty expectations, which means they were overrated.

We'll see how everything shakes out, but just remember -- it's not all about the number of teams per conference, and it's not necessarily about the won-loss record when judging if the committee was biased or "overrated" someone. It's much more complicated than that.

Seed-By-Conference Analysis: Committee Loves the Big East and ACC originally appeared on NCAA Basketball Tournament on Mon, 16 Mar 2009 18:00:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Arizona's Bid Payback for Mountain West Embarrassing Big Boys

Adam Papagiorgio — Mon, 16 Mar 2009 01:33:00 EST

Filed under: MWC, Pac-10

The Mountain West is as major conference that nobody wants to admit is a major conference. The Mountain West thoroughly embarrassed the Pac-10 in football during the regular season and Utah proved that it was the best team on the field after walloping Alabama in the Sugar Bowl. To make matters worse, the trouble-making conference wants to propose a college football playoff.

The NCAA wasn't about to take that lying down.

The NCAA used Selection Sunday to show the Mountain West just exactly where the conference stands in the pecking order of college athletics. The selection committee swung Arizona's bid like the paddle of an Omega House pledge trainer leaving the Mountain West to ask "Thank you, sir, may I have another?"

Selection Sunday had a host of undeserving bids (looking at you Maryland), but Arizona's bid was a direct shot at the Mountain West conference. Because honestly, the moment USC won the Pac-10 tournament, Arizona's bid should have been revoked. The selection committee claims it doesn't look at conferences, but cut the noise, they look at conferences. Six teams from the Pac-10 in a down year? Come on.

I hope that the selection committee was making a statement, because I would hate for them to be that incompetent.

There is absolutely no justification for Arizona's bid other than name recognition and the streak. The Wildcats didn't win 20 games, lost in their first game of the conference tournament, finished below .500 in the conference (9-10 including the tournament) and lost five of their last six games. So much for "how you finish."

San Diego State is the team getting the most play as an NCAA snub, but here's a secret about the Aztecs. State plays a good schedule, but doesn't beat any of those power teams. The Aztecs played Arizona State, Arizona and St. Mary's losing to all three. So there is a justification there. I don't necessarily agree, but I get it.

But UNLV is the team that needs an explanation right now. The Rebels beat Louisville on New Year's Eve without Wink Adams, matching Arizona's quality wins over Gonzaga (at home) and Kansas. UNLV also stumbled down the stretch and lost in its first game of the conference touranment. But the Rebels did finish on the plus side in conference and reached the 20-win mark (21-10).

Oh, and one rather important point here -- UNLV beat Arizona. Rut oh, Shaggy.

And really, this is UNLV. A storied college basketball program. This isn't Cal State Northridge. The Rebels and Wildcats had similar RPIs. The main difference in tournament resumes is conference affiliation. If UNLV and San Diego State were Pac-10 teams, both would be in the tournament right now. There is no doubt in my mind.

As further proof that the tournament selection committee knew what it was doing, Utah will play Arizona in the first round. So once again, the Mountain West is going to have to just go out and prove itself on the court/field. And if recent history is any indication, the Utes probably will. (Because they won't go out like BYU in the Las Vegas Bowl.)

Arizona's Bid Payback for Mountain West Embarrassing Big Boys originally appeared on NCAA Basketball Tournament on Mon, 16 Mar 2009 01:33:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Feel The Excitement: College Basketball Invitational Madness

Chas Rich — Mon, 16 Mar 2009 01:08:00 EST

Filed under: Big East, C-USA, MVC, MWC, Pac-10

Well, the third banana in college basketball post-season action has been announced (PDF). I know, like many of you, it was with baited breath to find out the field of sixteen.

The CBI did secure teams from the Pac-10, Big East and Mountain West. So, well, they can claim major conference participation. Whether anyone watches the games is a different matter. Four of the eight opening games will be airing on something called HD Net. I'm reasonably certain I have it, but I can't say I've ever watched it.
I guess it is better to keep playing then just end the season. See if the gyms can get a few thousand people to show up on short notice for a game that might have been a decent non-conference game back in December.

Anyways, here are the exciting match-ups that play on Tuesday and Wednesday:

Boise State-Stanford
Buffalo-Wichita State

UTEP-Nevada
Northeastern-Wyoming

Houston-Oregon State
Vermont-Green Bay

St. John's-Richmond
Charleston-Troy

Whoo-hoo!

Feel The Excitement: College Basketball Invitational Madness originally appeared on NCAA Basketball Tournament on Mon, 16 Mar 2009 01:08:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Midwest Region Breakdown: Louisville's Fast-Paced Bracket

Matt Snyder — Sun, 15 Mar 2009 23:35:00 EST

Filed under: A-10, ACC, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Horizon League, MAAC, MWC, NEC, OVC, Pac-10, SWAC, The Summit, Midwest Region

The Louisville Cardinals weren't thought to be in line for a No. 1 seed a week ago, but the ball bounced their way -- so much so that they ended up as the top seed in the entire tournament. Their reward is what appears to be a relatively weak bracket. Michigan State is arguably the worst two-seed in the eyes of the public, for example. The bracket definitely has an up-tempo feel to it, so expect to see the points pile up, especially in the early rounds.

Print Bracket | Bracket Games | First-Round Pairings | Schedule

Storylines

Does Arizona Belong? The Wildcats were the one team in the Dance that truly raised eyebrows across the country; many thought they were behind three or four teams who were left in the dark. They certainly have enough talent to take down the fifth-seeded Utes, but which 'Zona team will show up?

Maligned "Power" Conference vs. Strong Mid-Major. Ohio State comes in relatively hot, though it did drop the conference championship to Purdue Sunday. They get to square off against a really strong small school in Siena.

Another Final Four? Rick Pitino has led three different schools to the Final Four, making five total trips. He's got a good shot at taking his second team to multiple Final Four berths this year as the No. 1-overall seed. He's also pursuing the first Louisville National Championship since Pervis Ellison wore the uniform.

Another Viking Upset? The Cleveland State Vikings last made the Big Dance in 1986. That year, they upset Bob Knight's Indiana Hoosiers -- who would win the entire thing the following season -- en route to an appearance in the Sweet 16. This year, they face another strong big conference team in Wake Forest. Could history repeat itself?

Home Sweet Indianapolis? Michigan State has won one national championship under Tom Izzo (2000). It happened in Indianapolis, the same city where this region's Sweet 16 and Elite 8 round games will be played. Can the Spartans recapture the magic in Indy?

The Play-In Game. This isn't the place for an extended rant, but both Morehead State and Alabama State won their conference tournaments. This is supposed to ensure them a spot in the NCAA Tournament. Taking the name of the game literally, they still have to play their way into the tournament, even though they already did -- by virtue of clinching an "automatic" bid. This is a farce. If the committee is absolutely dead-set on having 65 teams instead of 64, they should have the last two at-large teams square off on Tuesday. Wouldn't Arizona vs. Wisconsin spark a lot more national interest anyway?

Other Region Breakdowns: East | West | South

Team That'll Break Your Bracket

Other than the 12-seed Arizona Wildcats, there don't appear to be many threats in the 11-16 seeds to take down a superior opponent, so we'll have to look past the first round. After that, my eyes wander to West Virginia. The Mountaineers have the horses to take down both Kansas and Michigan State in the bottom half of the bracket if they bring their A-game.

Then again, they could also lose to a sneaky Dayton team in the first round. Tread lightly.

Team That'll Break Your Heart

I'm sure most people want me to say Michigan State, since everyone thinks the Big Ten sucks. Instead I'm going with the team seeded higher than the Spartans. That's right, I'm calling Louisville to break your heart. It's not that the Cardinals aren't a good team. They are a great team. I get that. I'd also be a lot more impressed with their resume had they traveled to Pitt, UConn, or both. They even avoided both fellow No. 1 seeds in the Big East tournament. I understand that's not their fault, but they aren't as battle tested as they could be. Whether it's Wake Forest, Michigan State, Kansas, or West Virginia, someone is going to get them before the Final Four.

Predictions

Please note: These aren't FanHouse-wide, just my personal picks. You should certainly feel free to tell me how stupid I am in the comments. That will not, however, cause me to change my picks.

Round 1: Louisville over Morgan State/Alabama State winner; Ohio State over Siena; Arizona over Utah; Wake Forest over Cleveland State; West Virginia over Dayton; Kansas over North Dakota State; USC over Boston College; Michigan State over Robert Morris
Round 2: Louisville, Wake Forest, West Virginia, Michigan State
Sweet 16: Louisville, Michigan State
Elite 8: Michigan State takes down Louisville, and Tom Izzo heads to his fourth Final Four. Is that a homer pick, considering I cover the Big Ten? Maybe, maybe not. We'll know within the next few weeks if my head was in the right place.

Midwest Region Breakdown: Louisville's Fast-Paced Bracket originally appeared on NCAA Basketball Tournament on Sun, 15 Mar 2009 23:35:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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NIT Field Announced, Second Banana Battle Gets Underway

Chas Rich — Sun, 15 Mar 2009 21:45:00 EST

Filed under: A-10, ACC, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, CAA, C-USA, MVC, MWC, Pac-10, SEC

The snubbed teams like St. Mary's, Creighton, San Diego State and Penn State will get their chance to make their argument that they were deserving of an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament over Arizona, Minnesota, and well... that's about it.

The top four seeds in the NIT are San Diego State, Auburn, Creighton and Florida. The SEC packed the second tier tournament with four teams.

Penn State, one of the final teams that missed the NCAA tournament cut, ended up seeded No. 2 in Florida's bracket. The Nittany Lions start out with George Mason and could be looking at a rematch with Rhode Island. The Rams beat Penn State in the non-conference schedule and played a significant role in keeping the Nittany Lions out of the Tournament.

Here are the games for the first round:

No. 1 San Diego State-No. 8 Weber State
No. 4 Kansas State-No. 5 Illinois State
No. 3 South Carolina-No. 6 Davidson
No. 2 St. Mary's-No. 7 Washington State

No. 1 Auburn-No. 8 UT-Martin
No. 4 Tulsa-No. 5 Davidson
No. 3 Baylor-No. 6 Georgetown
No. 2. Virginia Tech-No. 7 Duquesne

No. 1 Creighton-No. 8 Bowling Green
No. 4 Kentucky-No. 5 UNLV
No. 3 New Mexico-No. 6 Nebraska
No. 2 Notre Dame-No. 7 UAB

No. 1 Florida-No. 8 Jacksonville
No. 4 Miami-No. 5 Providence
No. 3 Niagara-No.6 Rhode Island
No. 2 Penn State-No. 7 George Mason

Other things of note from the opening round: The Big East, Big 12 and Mountain West all put three teams in the NIT. The Miami-Providence game is actually going to be played in Providence because Miami's court has already been booked.

NIT Field Announced, Second Banana Battle Gets Underway originally appeared on NCAA Basketball Tournament on Sun, 15 Mar 2009 21:45:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Sleepless in San Diego: Aztecs Leave It Up to the Committee

Adam Papagiorgio — Sat, 14 Mar 2009 21:14:00 EST

Filed under: MWC

San Diego State could have spent the night partying on the strip, rolling through the Tropicana, Flamingo and Imperial Palace (hey, they are college students they can't afford the Bellagio) as Mountain West champions. And more importantly, basking in the high-roller status of being automatic tournament qualifiers.

Instead they will lie awake in bed tonight, nursing a hangover like one of those fools who wake up with wedding bands, wondering who that person laying next to them is. The Aztecs had an opportunity to punch its own ticket to the dance, and didn't do it. Now the anxiety starts.

San Diego State looks like it should be in the tournament. The team has dealt with suspensions, illness and injuries to put up a pretty solid record. The only dings are early losses to St. Mary's and Arizona -- two fellow bubble teams. However, the Aztecs finished the season strong, and knocked off UNLV and BYU in the conference tournament.

Logic says State is in. But this being the NCAA tournament, you can never assume.

Utah 52, San Diego State 50: Recap | Box Score | RPI | Scores

Sleepless in San Diego: Aztecs Leave It Up to the Committee originally appeared on NCAA Basketball Tournament on Sat, 14 Mar 2009 21:14:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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No Denying San Diego State's Bid Now

Adam Papagiorgio — Fri, 13 Mar 2009 23:16:00 EST

Filed under: MWC

San Diego State was on the bubble depending on which bracket projection you wanted to believe, but there is absolutely no denying it now -- the Aztecs are in the NCAA tournament following a huge win over BYU in the semifinals of the Mountain West tournament.

The Mountain West now looks like a solid three-bid conference and some cock-eyed optimists still believe that UNLV has a shot at a bid. But for right now, Utah, BYU and San Diego State appear to be locks.

San Diego State 64, No. 25 BYU 62: Recap | Box Score | RPI | Scores

San Diego State avenged two earlier losses to BYU, finally getting past the hump and getting that big win. The Aztecs have been light on huge wins, but a three-game sweep over UNLV along with reaching the conference finals should be enough to get them in.

St. Mary's might be a bit upset seeing that the Gaels had knocked off the Aztecs in the Wooden Classic for the second consecutive year, but that might not hold much weight with the selection committee.

The struggles still remain for BYU in the Mountain West tournament. The Cougars were the runner's up in a pair of contentious tournament finals the past two years. Last year's final was marred by a fight between the BYU and San Diego State fans.

The BYU fans appeared to behave themselves following the loss. But then again, those fans have a lot of experience leaving the Thomas and Mack Center on the losing end.

No Denying San Diego State's Bid Now originally appeared on NCAA Basketball Tournament on Fri, 13 Mar 2009 23:16:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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UNLV Must Hope Selection Committee Remembers Louisville Road Win

Adam Papagiorgio — Fri, 13 Mar 2009 02:21:00 EST

Filed under: MWC

ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi has been in love with the Mountain West Conference for most of the season, at one point believing that five teams could get into the NCAA tournament. That's not going to happen now. UNLV looked pathetic on its home court, losing a third game this season to San Diego State and greatly diminishing any hopes that the Rebels had of making a third consecutive NCAA appearance.

But the Rebels weren't the only team that struggled in the early rounds of the conference tournaments. Is there any hope that UNLV might sneak into this thing?

San Diego State 71 UNLV 57: Recap | Box Score | RPI | Scores

That's a tough one. I have to believe that the Rebels are a little bit closer than people are getting them credit for. And there are a couple of early-round loses that really benefit UNLV here.

For starters, Arizona lost to Arizona State. This game greatly helps the Rebels' cause. The Wildcats would be a feel-good story gunning for their 25th consecutive appearance in the dance. A decent run into the Pac-10 tournament would have put them in. But going one-and-done, puts Arizona behind UNLV, thanks to the Rebels' head-to-head victory.

The other big game was New Mexico's upset at the hands of Wyoming. The Cowboys likely sent the Lobos to the NIT with that one. UNLV and New Mexico are close in RPI, but the Rebels have that road win at Louisville. That is the difference.

Don't close the door on UNLV just yet. The good news for the Rebels is that unlike St. Mary's, this loss wasn't on national TV.

And not to diminish San Diego State's accomplishments. I know, it's not fair to harp on UNLV when the Aztecs did the winning. But that's because State is in the tournament. A win over BYU would certainly help cement that, but State should go on to win the Mountain West tournament. That story hasn't been written quite yet.

UNLV Must Hope Selection Committee Remembers Louisville Road Win originally appeared on NCAA Basketball Tournament on Fri, 13 Mar 2009 02:21:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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