Repeat Performance on Tap?

In life, you may never get a second chance to make a first impression.

But if you bomb it as badly as Michigan State did in its 98-63 loss to North Carolina in December that was godawful embarrassing even by the standards of a stadium that hosts the Lions, you'll get months, if not a lifetime, to explain exactly what went wrong.

And if you're the Spartans, you get a second chance to make it right.

At least after you explain. And explain. And explain.

"We're a lot different," said Raymar Morgan, noting that Goran Suton didn't play and Delvon Roe wasn't healthy. "We just had a lot of ups and downs."

"We were a little beat up," offered coach Tom Izzo, in his most optimistic post mortem of the game. "That's the truth. We came off that three games in four days. Even Roy [Williams] said to me after the game, we're hanging in there with five, six minutes to go."

"It was hard watching these guys play and not being there that time," Suton said. "But we have got a chance. I think it's going to be a totally different game."

But Suton might be as much of a minority as those who only buy American cars. North Carolina is the favorite tonight, should be the favorite tonight and has probably already choreographed a little "One Shining Moment" dance.

Somewhere between truth and good coaching, Izzo has blown enough smoke over the Tar Heels to set off fire alarms all across the Midwest.

When asked how he could beat North Carolina, he joked about getting Magic Johnson's final two years of eligibility restored.

When asked how the result would've been different if everyone was healthy, he said blankly that they might've lost by 20 had they played as they did with a full roster, instead of losing by 35.

And when asked about the Tar Heels and their former national player of the year, their reigning ACC player of the year and their other pair of scorers capable of posting a back-snapping stat line, Izzo was blunt..

"I keep saying one-on-one, we're not as good as North Carolina," he said. "I don't feel bad about saying that. I don't feel like I'm demeaning my team. I'm realistic. I'm semi-intelligent. I've watched enough film.

"If we play good and they play good, we're losing."

And Izzo is probably right. Monday night's championship game could be different than the ACC-Big Ten Challenge debacle, but probably only in margin and date. It's just as likely Michigan State ends up in a world of hurt even the Big 3's accountants would wince at.



Yes, Suton is back. But will it matter in any way other than an extra name in the stat sheet? North Carolina has 28 feet of interior presence to rotate on Suton. The Heels locked down Gonzaga's Josh Heytvelt in the Sweet 16, and when Oklahoma's Blake Griffin turned the Heels interior defense into a pile of light blue kindling wood, North Carolina still won. By 12.

Is Suton going to do better than Griffin? Is he going to do a better job of drawing North Carolina's big men out of the paint than Duke's Kyle Singler did when the Tar Heels twice bounced the Blue Devils?

Can he defend Ty Lawson, the point guard whose sneakers seem to run on the same stuff they put in fighter planes?

And then there's home court advantage, the fight for Detroit.

"It's a storm in the city," said Kalin Lucas, making his point meteorologically. "So we're trying to bring sunlight in."

But is home-court advantage going to matter to a team that's gone into Duke's Cameron Indoor Stadium, kicked its feet up, enjoyed a hot dog and beat the Blue Devils four straight times for dessert? Will 72,000-ish fans add anything more than the 9,314 at Cameron except longer lines in the rest room? The 25,000 or so that showed up for the first event definitely didn't help.

"You know if we're playing against the city of Detroit and the state of Michigan, they out number us," Williams said. "We don't have as good a chance at that one. ...So for us, we're playing Michigan State. I do realize they have a cause. Well, we also have a cause. We want to win a national championship, period."

Will Roe's health matter? The freshman played the first game not long after coming off a nine-month layover following a knee injury suffered in December, 2007. Roe, heavily recruited by these same Heels, is a superb offensive rebounder, but Villanova gouged North Carolina on the offensive boards in the Final Four and still lost by 14. Rebounding alone won't change the outcome.

And there's the idea that Michigan State has improved much more than North Carolina since their meeting, which may be true. But the Heels had the kind of head start that would let Barkley beat Bolt in a 100-meter dash.

And these Heels have improved. Don't think so? Check out the way their defensive efficiency has improved this season, like a steady climb inverse your stock portfolio. They're 16th in the nation now, plenty respectable for a national champion. And that perimeter defense which was cut to ribbons by Tyrese Rice, Jeff Teague, Toney Douglas and Greivis Vasquez at points this season is now sea-worthy tight. Look at those horrific shooting percentages by Villanova and Oklahoma's guards. Look at that fat zero in Matt Bouldin's assist column in the win over Gonzaga.

Of course, in a one-and-done environment, anything is possible and like everyone outside of the Tar Heel state, we'll be hoping the Spartans' moment shines another night.

But Michigan State has to play just about perfectly. And perfect is North Carolina's game plan.

You never get a second chance to make a first impression. But you always get plenty of chances to re-affirm it.