How Michigan State Can Upset UConn

Rebound. Make the shooters beat you. Rebound. Make Thabeet roam. Rebound.

These are the five keys for Michigan State if it's to win its Final Four game. The most important are the first, third and fifth, but Nos. 2 and No. 4 could make the difference if the game is close.

Connecticut has only lost four games this year. One was in six overtimes, so we're going to throw that out. The other three all offer clues on how to beat the Huskies.

---

---

We'll start with the very first loss -- at home to Georgetown on Dec. 29. Now, given everything that happened to/with those two teams after that night, that game stands as one of the biggest upsets of the year in the whole country. But on that night, the Hoyas beat one of the best teams in the nation, and they did it by messing with Hasheem Thabeet's feet and head.

Georgetown coach John Thompson, figuring (correctly) that Connecticut would defend his star freshman center, Greg Monroe, with the 7-foot-3 Thabeet, decided to deploy Monroe away from the basket. Monroe, a skilled passer and a decent jump-shooter for a guy who's 6-foot-10, had four assists and hit a 3-point shot in the first six minutes of the game as the Hoyas raced out to an 18-3 lead. Thabeet continually drifted out away from the basket to play Monroe, and the middle was open for the Georgetown offense, which ran cuts to the basket with Monroe making the passes.

The result was the shockingly huge early lead and an obviously upset Thabeet, who never got back in sync and finished with just four points (though he did come up with seven blocks once he was able to get himself back under the basket).

The reason this is a blueprint for Michigan State is Goran Suton, the 6-foot-10 center with the sweet outside jumper. If UConn uses Thabeet to play Suton at the outset, it's possible that he could open up the middle for the Spartans' offense by canning a couple of jumpers and forcing Thabeet to come out and play him.

Now, Jim Calhoun is no dummy, and if I can figure this out, I'm sure he can too. My guess is you'll see either Jeff Adrien (just 6-foot-7 but tough as hell and built like a house) or Stanley Robinson (at 6-foot-9, possibly better suited to play Suton man-on-man) play Suton at the start of the game, and that Thabeet's instructions will be to camp out under the basket and make sure nobody in green gets anywhere near it. If Tom Izzo does come up with a game plan that moves Thabeet around, though, a lot of things could open up for Michigan State.


On defense, Michigan State needs to pay attention to the strengths and weaknesses of the UConn guards. A.J. Price has a nice outside shot, but with injured Jerome Dyson on the bench in a suit, Price is really its only outside threat. The UConn guards succeed by driving and penetrating, not by shooting from deep. MSU would do well to assign one defender to Price and then sag with the rest of the defense, closing off the lanes to penetration and forcing Connecticut's guards to beat them with outside shots.

If the Spartans do that, and UConn misses those shots, that leads right into the real major key to the game -- the rebounding. Michigan State is the best rebounding team in the country, and it absolutely must control the boards on both ends if it's to have a chance in this game. Aside from Georgetown and the six-OT epic against Syracuse, UConn's other two losses were to Pittsburgh, which was the toughest rebounding team in the Big East. Pitt outrebounded UConn 43-30 in the first game and 41-40 in the second, and won both games easily.

UConn has size and strength inside, but so did Pittsburgh. And rebounding very often comes down to determination. Pitt preaches rebounding like it's religion, and so does Michigan State. The way they hammered the glass in the second half of their game against Kansas and then against Louisville, the Spartans had the look of a team that wasn't going to allow the other team to win the game on the boards.

If they can get Connecticut into a close game, and they can attack the glass the way they and few other teams can, the Spartans have a good chance not just to stay with the Huskies, but to be playing one more game on Monday night.