Is Villanova this Final Four's unwelcome guest? Its square peg? The one of these things that's not like the others; the one of these things that doesn't belong?Maybe. The Wildcats are certainly the most surprising entrant. Plenty of people wrote Connecticut and North Carolina into that big box in the middle of their brackets two weeks ago. A few people (and yeah, you're looking at one of em) even wrote in Michigan State. But if you picked Villanova to win it all, you were in the minority, and you probably still are.
Villanova isn't even being given much of a chance to win a game in Detroit. The big, bad Tar Heels are the Wildcats' semifinal opponents, and popular opinion is reverting to the increasingly justifiable preseason preception that North Carolina is the clear-cut best team in the country -- that there's nothing anybody can do to stop them.
Maybe. But look a little deeper, and you realize Villanova might have exactly what it takes to stop them.
North Carolina has lost just four games this season, and those games have something in common. In all four of them, an opposing guard went absolutely bonkers. To wit:
March 14 vs. Florida State: Toney Douglas, 27 points on 10-for-18 shooting, 3-for-8 three-pointers.*
Feb. 21 at Maryland: Greivis Vasquez, 35 points on 13-for-24(!) shooting, 5-for-10 three-pointers.
Jan. 11 at Wake Forest: Jeff Teague, 34 points on 9-for-17 shooting, 3-for-4 three-pointers.
Jan. 4 vs. Boston College: Tyrese Rice, 25 points on 7-for-13 shooting, 2-for-6 three-pointers.**
(* - Ty Lawson did not play in this game.)
(** -- Fellow guards Rakim Sanders and Reggie Jackson also had huge games in UNC's surprising first loss of the season.)
This is no coincidence. Ever since they lost Marcus Ginyard to injury, Carolina's main weakness has been perimeter defense. Hot-shooting guards are potential kryptonite for the Tar Heels, and the problems aren't limited to the three-point line. Carolina's interior help-side defense is also vulnerable to quick, penetrating guards because it's so geared toward keeping Tyler Hansbrough out of foul trouble.
Villanova has no fewer than four guards who can light it up from outside and/or slash their way to the basket. If they get a big game from Scottie Reynolds, Corey Stokes, Corey Fisher or Dwayne Anderson, that could be enough to get Carolina off its game. And if two of them had big games, Villanova could go off and run away with the thing.
Blasphemy, you say! North Carolina has no weakness. The Heels have sealed the cracks in their perimeter defense. They smothered Oklahoma out there Sunday. And besides, Lawson is playing way too far out of his mind for any of this to be a factor. It doesn't matter how well or how tough Villanova plays. There's nothing they can do. They're just outmanned.
Maybe. But Villanova was a hot-finishing fourth-place team in the toughest conference of all time. They've played the best and most consistent defense of any team in this tournament. (Due respect to the rough-and-tumble Spartans, with whom we're sticking, by the way.) If you had to make a pick right now, which team is going to play better defense in this game Saturday, you'd pick Villanova, if you've been watching all year.
Carolina has the horses to make the Final Four a rout. A coronation, even. But when you take a deeper look at this matchup, you start to get the feeling that it the Tar Heels' semifinal game might not be a pale blue cakewalk after all.
NCAA Tournament Action
GREENSBORO, NC - MARCH 21: Wayne Ellington #22 of the North Carolina Tar Heels drives against Garrett Temple #14 of the Louisiana State University Tigers during the second round of the NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Tournament at the Greensboro Coliseum on March 21, 2009 in Greensboro, North Carolina. (Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images) *** Local Caption *** Wayne Ellington;Garrett Temple
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PORTLAND, OR - MARCH 21: A Washington Huskies cheerleader performs during a break in the action against the Purdue Boilermakers during the second round of the NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Tournament at the Rose Garden on March 21, 2009 in Portland, Oregon. (Photo by Jonathan Ferrey/Getty Images)
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KANSAS CITY, MO - MARCH 21: Manny Harris #3 of the Michigan Wolverines jumps to the basket for a lay up against Taylor Griffin #32 of the Oklahoma Sooners in the first half during the second round of the NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Tournament at the Sprint Center on March 21, 2009 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images) *** Local Caption *** Manny Harris
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KANSAS CITY, MO - MARCH 21: Zack Novan #0 and Zack Gibson #32 of the Michigan Wolverines vie for the loose ball with Blake Griffin #23 of the Oklahoma Sooners in the first half during the second round of the NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Tournament at the Sprint Center on March 21, 2009 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images) *** Local Caption *** Zack Gibson;Zack Novak;Blake Griffin
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KANSAS CITY, MO - MARCH 21: Willie Warren #13 of the Oklahoma Sooners makes contact as he goes to the basket with Zack Gibson #32 of the Michigan Wolverines in the first hafl during the second round of the NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Tournament at the Sprint Center on March 21, 2009 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images) *** Local Caption *** Willie Warren
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KANSAS CITY, MO - MARCH 21: Taylor Griffin #32 of the Oklahoma Sooners goes up for the short jump shot against DeShawn Sims #34 of the Michigan Wolverines in the first half during the second round of the NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Tournament at the Sprint Center on March 21, 2009 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images) *** Local Caption *** Taylor Griffin;DeShawn Sims
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PORTLAND, OR - MARCH 21: JaJuan Johnson #25 of the Purdue Boilermakers goes up for a shot over Jon Brockman #40 of the Washington Huskies in the second half during the second round of the NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Tournament at the Rose Garden on March 21, 2009 in Portland, Oregon. (Photo by Jonathan Ferrey/Getty Images) *** Local Caption *** JaJuan Johnson;Jon Brockman
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KANSAS CITY, MO - MARCH 21: Taylor Griffin #23 of the Oklahoma Sooners and Zack Novak #0 of the Michigan Wolverines vie for position to the loose ball in the first half during the second round of the NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Tournament at the Sprint Center on March 21, 2009 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images) *** Local Caption *** Zack Novak;Taylor Griffin
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KANSAS CITY, MO - MARCH 21: Head Coach Jeff Capel of the Michigan Wolverines yells from the sideline during their game against the Oklahoma Sooners in the second round of the NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Tournament at the Sprint Center on March 21, 2009 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images) *** Local Caption *** Jeff Capel
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PORTLAND, OR - MARCH 21: Lewis Jackson #23 of the Purdue Boilermakers goes up for a layup as Quincy Pondexter #20 of the Washington Huskies looks on during the second round of the NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Tournament at the Rose Garden on March 21, 2009 in Portland, Oregon. (Photo by Jonathan Ferrey/Getty Images) *** Local Caption *** Lewis Jackson;Quincy Pondexter
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
4-01-2009 @ 8:15PM
cnokari said...
Blasphemy I tell you against the Tarheels. Remember Oklahoma!
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