The Final Debate

All eyes are on Detroit as we're less than one week away from crowning the national champion and moving on to 2010. So with only four teams still standing in the Big Dance, NCAA Basketball FanHouse got together for a FanHouse Roundtable to discuss what we can expect. Find out why the only thing we love more than the Heels are the head coaches.

Matt Snyder: I don't think anyone can handle North Carolina right now. They didn't even need a decent game from Tyler Hansbrough to stomp a very tough Oklahoma team. Ty Lawson appears to be healthy, and he'll get some additional rest this week. They are easily the team to beat, and it would appear Roy Williams is going to do something for the second time that he couldn't do once at Kansas.

I do think Michigan State will take down UConn in the semifinals -- obvious Big Ten bias plays a role. They can adapt their game to win at any tempo, as they showed against Kansas and Louisville. Plus, they have a dude named Idong Ibok. That alone gives them an advantage at something.

If the Spartans and Tar Heels do advance, we'll get to see a rematch of the 35-point massacre from the ACC/Big Ten Challenge -- in the same venue. This time, though, Goran Suton will suit up for Michigan State. He can't make a 35-point difference, but perhaps the Spartans have improved enough over the course of the season to close the gap a bit and give us an exciting championship.

Dan Graziano: I have a Big East bias, and a memory of a really good-looking North Carolina team that showed up at last year's Final Four and got obliterated by Kansas. So I'm thinking Carolina's next game is no pushover. Villanova may not win, but I think they'll do more than anybody else has so far to make UNC earn it, and the result may be a worn-out bunch of Tar Heels two nights later.

Biases aside, though, my pick before this tournament started was Michigan State, and I see no reason to go off of it now. I agree with Matt's assessment that they can adjust their game to win in any style. The reason is rebounding. They're better at it than anybody in the country, and it's one of the few consistents in this game. Hasheem Thabeet's banged up, and on top of that MSU is the kind of team that will probably frustrate and annoy him -- and he doesn't play well when annoyed; he kind of gets moody and disappears a little, like in the last game, when Stanley Robinson had to take over inside on defense.

I give Michigan State the rebounding and coaching edge over everybody left in this tournament, and that's why I think they'll beat UNC in the title game. Suton is playing like a guy who won't accept losing, and I think MSU has the toughness edge over UNC too.

Plus, as Snyder mentioned, they have Ibok, who's bound to make an impact before it's all said and done.

Chris Burke: I've been reluctant to give Tom Izzo heaps of praise in the past because MSU went through a longer-than-it-should-have-been conference title drought, but it's pretty clear that he's right up there in terms of the best tournament coaches in the country. Still, to assume that the Spartans have a coaching advantage now is kind of a disservice to Jim Calhoun, Roy Williams and even Jay Wright. I don't know that Rick Pitino got outcoached, so much as his team got out-toughed, and those are two different things.

Ray Holloman: I still like North Carolina, but I think Villanova will give them one heck of a test in the Final Four. The big question about the Tar Heels all year has been how well can they hold together their perimeter defense without Marcus Ginyard available, and thus far in the tournament they've done pretty well. They did a great job against Jeremy Pargo and Matt Bouldin (albeit Pargo had three fouls midway through the first half) with Gonzaga and they sealed up Oklahoma, after a few consecutive lapses against Willie Warren after the Heels initial burst in the first half anyway. Oklahoma helped by missing a lot of open shots in the second half, but North Carolina did a good job in the first 20 minutes. Almost every look was contested in the first half.

But Villanova doesn't just have one guy that can penetrate and hurt you, they've got four on the court at any given time. And they've got Dante Cunningham, who can work inside or outside and will be a tough matchup problem. If you've got both Deon Thompson and Hansbrough in the game, one of those guys will be getting driven by. Villanova is also a much better rebounding team than they're given credit for. The Wildcats are a better team on the offensive glass than the Heels are on the defensive glass, so don't expect to see Jay Wright's team be one-and-done every possession. They're also a great free throw shooting team and really get to the line. (In fact, Villanova gets there more than North Carolina as a percentage of field goals attempted). They shoot 76.5 percent from the charity stripe and against both Duke and Pitt those free throws were a killer.

But the Heels just have so much going for them. Ed Davis may be the best big man NBA prospect left in the tournament and he's third in the rotation behind Hansbrough and Thompson (and gives up minutes to Tyler Zeller, too). And yeah, they got staggered last year, and I suppose it's valid to question why Roy Williams does what he does at times, but I don't think its necessarily fair to hold the sins of last year's team against this one. They really talk about that collapse against Georgetown two years ago and Kansas last year as learning experiences. Williams talked about it going into the Sweet 16, Ty Lawson and Danny Green talked about Kansas after beating Oklahoma. But that transition offense is just so unstoppable. How many times Sunday did Oklahoma score what felt like a pivotal bucket in the first half only to have Ty Lawson dart down court before the scorer's name was announced and draw a foul or find Danny Green for a dunk? I think Villanova will break out that 1-2-2 press to disrupt the timing of the Heels offense, but I just don't know that the Wildcats will be able to do it.

Michigan State and UConn, I like the Huskies, but I'm buying stock in Johnson & Johnson before that game starts. One team is going to have to bleed to win that game. And I like North Carolina to run from Connecticut in the final, but those are going to be two dog-tired teams by the time Monday night wraps up.

Adam Papagiorgio: I had Michigan State winning the tournament in all of my pools. Mainly because of Izzo and what he brings to the table. I agree that maybe Izzo didn't necessarily out-coach Pitino, but Michigan State is certainly playing some of its best hoop.

That being said, I don't know what more can be said about North Carolina. I didn't realize that the Heels were that good. Make no mistake, Gonzaga is a really good team. And that butt-whooping was more about how good Carolina is, and not an idictment on the Bulldogs. I was actually relieved that the Heels punked the Sooners so soundly because that helped to take away some of the sting of the Gonzaga game.

So right now, I have to figure that North Carolina wins this thing going away.

Jacob Wheatley-Schaller: I'm normally more of a stats-based guy, but man, whenever I watch this UNC team play with Lawson in there, and I'm rooting against them (almost always), it's just such a helpless feeling. It's really come full circle from the preseason, where they were clearly the best team, to the second half of the season where that title changed from week to week, to now where it's pretty obvious that you'd have to expect them to win a game on a neutral floor against any team in the country. That offense ... well, it's as good as you would've expected when everyone announced they were coming back, and that's really saying something. I like UConn in the other game, although not nearly as much. That's a great defense, obviously because of Thabeet, but they never turn you over. And there's always the chance you get Thabeet out of the game with fouls, which really changes the whole dynamic; it actually didn't in the Mizzou game, since the Tigers never bothered to go to the rim even with him out of the game (they much preferred shooting 15-footers, always a good strategy), but in general it makes a big difference. Anyway, I think UConn probably takes it, Walker really adds a whole new dimension to their offense.

Shane Bacon: I just can't see North Carolina losing this Final Four. They are hitting their stride at the most opportune time, playing some incredible basketball against a really tough run through their bracket. Gonzaga was sneaky tough, Oklahoma might have been able to take down any of the other three teams heading to Detroit and UNC wiped the floor with them.

It's all about who is playing the best basketball at the end of March and right now the Heels are (get ready for it) head over heels better than the rest of the field.

Chas Rich: I'm very torn on the MSU-UConn game, beyond any obvious Big East bias. There is no question that Tom Izzo is a fantastic coach who finally has this team healthy and contributions going deep into the bench.

But I like the starting talent on UConn better and the Huskies don't play a pace too differently from what MSU plays, so that won't be an issue of frustration. Plus, Jim Calhoun is not exactly a slouch in preparing his team for big games.

On the other side, it will be closer than expected (I think UNC is favored by eight right now), but Villanova will just not be able to beat UNC. Again, as important as depth can be, in games at this point, it's about the starting five and only a couple players off the bench. That is so clearly in favor of UNC.