Final Four Not What You Think

Take everything you think you know about this Final Four and toss it in the waste bin with the scrap paper that was once your brackets. The brackets that had Pittsburgh meeting Louisville for the national title. The brackets that were oh so certain Michigan State of the overrated Big Ten would, exactly like IKEA furniture, collapse after one week. The brackets that said Wake Forest was underrated and Arizona's bid was a career achievement award.

Forget it all, because like your brackets, this Final Four will be all about what you didn't know.

Start with the Spartans, the mixed martial basketball-tough team that sent overall top seed Louisville home for spring break. Tom Izzo teams have a reputation for toughness but with the aesthetics of an offensive line taking up ballet. Believe that until you see Big Ten player of the year Kalin Lucas two-step through three defenders and kiss one off the glass. Go ahead and believe that until big man Goran Suton steps back and drills a 3-pointer right in some poor defender's eyeballs. The Bosnian big man is averaging 8.1 rebounds per game, but he's also a 42 percent 3-point shooter. If that sounds impressive, it should. That's better than 3-point king J.J. Redick managed in three of his seasons at Duke.

Feel free to think the Spartans are all smash and no sizzle until they dribble right through your defense. Michigan State only coughed the ball up once against Louisville's tighter-than-Bob Knight's sweater full court press. Believe that defensive stopper Travis Walton, who made Terrence Williams disappear Sunday, can only play defense, and then watch him slip by your teams for eight points and two assists, like he scored against the Cardinals or the five assists he dropped against Kansas.

You're not wrong to think the Spartans take a page out of the Red Wings' playbook every now and again, shooting the ball on goal and hoping the scrum in front of the net can bang it in. The Spartans are fifth in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage, but they're also the 23rd most efficient offense. And while you've been cracking Big Ten jokes, Michigan State has been tightening the gears on offense. The Spartans were a superior offensive team against Louisville and its blast-furnace defense, scoring 113.5 points per 100 possessions, compared to what offensive-standard North Carolina was against Oklahoma (111.5).

So go ahead, make your football jokes, but only if you're comparing Michigan State to Oklahoma.


Fill out your Final Four assuming Connecticut can survive only with Hasheem Thabeet, the 7-foot-3 Sequoia that has to check height restrictions to walk through highway tunnels, and then watch Stanley Robinson's double-wide frame bounce you out of the paint. Call the Huskies soft, then watch them bail out Johnson & Johnson's stock with all the Band-Aids they press into use. Don't gameplan for Kemba Walker, then watch him shed that freshman label and your defenders all at once.

Think the Huskies' hearts aren't in it and they're biding their time till the NBA calls, but then remember that when Missouri took a second-half lead, Connecticut dug so deep that it probably had to file for a permit. Pretend they won't win without help a monstrous free-throw differential (the Huskies are eighth in the nation in free throw-to-field goal ratio and first in that same metric defensively) and then realize they squashed Texas A&M while on the wrong side of the charity battle. And that free-throw differential comes from discipline the Marines would be proud of, even if it's something their coach's mouth might not always have.

Pick against Uconn because of the looming cloud of an NCAA investigation, but only if you don't talk to the Huskies, who are as concerned about that as the color of Jim Calhoun's necktie.

Then there's Villanova, a team you probably think will be happy just to be there. But is Scottie Reynolds really going to stop when he just got started with a mad dash for Detroit against Pitt? Think they're a soft perimeter team but then watch them wrestle Duke and UCLA to the ground and grab 42.6 percent of their offensive rebounds against Pitt's big-bodied glass crew. Place a bet on who has more double-doubles in the NCAA Tournament, Dante Cunningham or Tyler Hansbrough. If you picked Hansbrough, you'd be just as wrong as those who thought Duke was destined to March through the Wildcats to Detroit.

Pick North Carolina over Villanova because you don't think anyone can stop Ty Lawson and Wayne Ellington, but consider that Wildcats all but taped Gerald Henderson's hands behind his back as the athletic wing hit just 1-of-14 shots. Villanova ended Darren Collison's All-American career, humbling the UCLA point guard into five turnovers against only one assist.

Assume coach Jay Wright will have no way to defend against North Carolina's 21 feet of brute down low, but can Hansbrough, Deon Thompson and Ed Davis do something that DeJuan Blair, a man contained only by his bicep bands, couldn't? Think of them as Big East lite, but remember they played against a team whose starting guard, Jermaine Dixon, popped his groin and checked back in. Don't worry about them out-toughing Ty's toe.

And there are the Heels. You may have penciled them in for a Shining Moment already, but admit that you think of them as a team who couldn't find a little D even if they've spelled Detroit. Yet those Heels are 18th in the nation in defensive efficiency, ahead of supposedly defense-first teams like Duke, Wake Forest and UCLA. Their perimeter, which was buzzed by Tyrese Rice and Jeff Teague in regular-season losses, has tightened up just in time to stroll into the home of tuneups. They kept Jeremy Pargo in check and held Gonzaga's best perimeter passer, Matt Bouldin, to zero assists. Against Oklahoma, only two players managed to break double digits and the Sooners didn't hit a single shot from 3-point range until well after the game was in the books.

Pick against them because someone on that team has to slump, but realize they've got more weapons than an NFL entourage. Neither Hansbrough nor Ellington cracked double digits Sunday and the Heels still had such an easy afternoon Sunday they might've caught a nap in the locker room.

So go ahead, pick all these teams based on what you think you know, then remember in the season of chaos, this will be the Final Four of the unknown.