Who's the Sweetest?

It's shaping up to to be one of the best Sweet 16s of all time with top-three seeds alive by the dozen. So who's heading back home in time for the weekend and whose moment will continue to be oh so shining? Find out as we rank the last 16 teams and explain why your favorite team is going to lose. We're 15/16 certain of it.

Somebody, pass a cup around. Cinderella needs bus fare to get back home.

Taking a page out of Jay Cutler's playbook, college basketball's patron saint of upset flat-out asked for a trade this week after the favorites marched all over the little guys. All top-three seeds advanced for the first time in modern tournament history and the closest thing you've got to a Cinderella story is 12th-seeded Cinderella.

And just because Donald Trump may lose a few billion doesn't make him a small businessman.

So to sort the sanity out, FanHouse's college sports editor and writers got together to rank the remaining 16 teams and explain why you're club is going down. Find out why we love the Heels and are selling short on the two seeds.

Ballots come from college sports editor Ray Holloman and writers Chas Rich, Shane Bacon, Chris Burke, Jacob Wheatley-Schaller, Matt Snyder and Adam Papagiorgio.


1. North Carolina | Seed: 1 | Region: South | High: 1 | Low: 3

Why They Could Win It All: They're the most efficient offensive team in the country and with a healthy Ty Lawson, they're the single best transition team in the country. You don't have to try and beat North Carolina, you have to outlast them. So what if the Tar Heels play defense with the enthusiasm you have for the treadmill? They're 35th in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency, so they're hardly a Maginot line in Alexander Julian shorts. That number isn't as good as the last two teams, and certainly not the '05 title team, but the Heels have a great scoring power forward, a great point guard, an elite scoring shooting guard, tremendous front court depth and

Why They Will Lose: Coaching? Offensive droughts? Ty's Toe using its new popularity to be elected as President Toe-bama? Lawson's health is a major concern for the Heels, but so too should be their last two exits from the NCAA tournament, both in stunning fashion. Two years ago, North Carolina hit just one-of-23 field goals over a near-15 minute span in the end of regulation and overtime against Georgetown, to turn a 75-65 lead into a 96-84 loss. Last year the Heels fell behind 40-12 against Kansas in the FInal Four and ran out of gas during the subsequent comeback. Now led by seniors and juniors, will these Heels have the poise to withstand a run?
-Holloman

2. Louisville | Seed: 1 | Region: Midwest | High: 1 | Low: 4

Why They Could Win It All: The Cards have the look of a team peaking at the end of the season. Their pressing defense can keep them in any game and Earl Clark has played the last couple weeks like a guy who intends to ace his NBA draft lottery audition. Plus, Terrence Williams has simply refused to let Louisville lose focus on the court.

Why They Will Lose: That said, the Cards can't press if they aren't scoring. Missed shots -- especially off of threes -- tend to give teams the chance to get out in transition and circumvent Louisville's press entirely. Edgar Sosa, especially can be prone to just hoisting long, errant three after three.
-Rich

3. UConn | Seed: 1 | Region: West | High: 3 | Low: 6


Why They Could Win It All: The Tigers already had their wake-up call in the first round against Cal State-Northridge and rebounded by plastering Maryland. When it's going well, Memphis offers the type of length and athleticism that few teams in the country can contend with. They have the potential to give teams fits defensively, but are able to put points on the board as well. Oh, and the Tigers have been here before -- coming within one defensive stop of a national title last season, a loss that several remaining players lived through.

Why They Will Lose: There are questions about Memphis' level of competition throughout the season (a point that a strength-of-schedule ranking of 55 seems to support), so we can't be sure that even the Tigers' best will be good enough to run off four impressive wins in a row.
- Burke

NCAA Tournament Action

GREENSBORO, NC - MARCH 21: Wayne Ellington #22 of the North Carolina Tar Heels drives against Garrett Temple #14 of the Louisiana State University Tigers during the second round of the NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Tournament at the Greensboro Coliseum on March 21, 2009 in Greensboro, North Carolina. (Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images) *** Local Caption *** Wayne Ellington;Garrett Temple

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PORTLAND, OR - MARCH 21: A Washington Huskies cheerleader performs during a break in the action against the Purdue Boilermakers during the second round of the NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Tournament at the Rose Garden on March 21, 2009 in Portland, Oregon. (Photo by Jonathan Ferrey/Getty Images)

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KANSAS CITY, MO - MARCH 21: Manny Harris #3 of the Michigan Wolverines jumps to the basket for a lay up against Taylor Griffin #32 of the Oklahoma Sooners in the first half during the second round of the NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Tournament at the Sprint Center on March 21, 2009 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images) *** Local Caption *** Manny Harris

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KANSAS CITY, MO - MARCH 21: Zack Novan #0 and Zack Gibson #32 of the Michigan Wolverines vie for the loose ball with Blake Griffin #23 of the Oklahoma Sooners in the first half during the second round of the NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Tournament at the Sprint Center on March 21, 2009 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images) *** Local Caption *** Zack Gibson;Zack Novak;Blake Griffin

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KANSAS CITY, MO - MARCH 21: Willie Warren #13 of the Oklahoma Sooners makes contact as he goes to the basket with Zack Gibson #32 of the Michigan Wolverines in the first hafl during the second round of the NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Tournament at the Sprint Center on March 21, 2009 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images) *** Local Caption *** Willie Warren

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KANSAS CITY, MO - MARCH 21: Taylor Griffin #32 of the Oklahoma Sooners goes up for the short jump shot against DeShawn Sims #34 of the Michigan Wolverines in the first half during the second round of the NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Tournament at the Sprint Center on March 21, 2009 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images) *** Local Caption *** Taylor Griffin;DeShawn Sims

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PORTLAND, OR - MARCH 21: JaJuan Johnson #25 of the Purdue Boilermakers goes up for a shot over Jon Brockman #40 of the Washington Huskies in the second half during the second round of the NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Tournament at the Rose Garden on March 21, 2009 in Portland, Oregon. (Photo by Jonathan Ferrey/Getty Images) *** Local Caption *** JaJuan Johnson;Jon Brockman

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KANSAS CITY, MO - MARCH 21: Taylor Griffin #23 of the Oklahoma Sooners and Zack Novak #0 of the Michigan Wolverines vie for position to the loose ball in the first half during the second round of the NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Tournament at the Sprint Center on March 21, 2009 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images) *** Local Caption *** Zack Novak;Taylor Griffin

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KANSAS CITY, MO - MARCH 21: Head Coach Jeff Capel of the Michigan Wolverines yells from the sideline during their game against the Oklahoma Sooners in the second round of the NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Tournament at the Sprint Center on March 21, 2009 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images) *** Local Caption *** Jeff Capel

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PORTLAND, OR - MARCH 21: Lewis Jackson #23 of the Purdue Boilermakers goes up for a layup as Quincy Pondexter #20 of the Washington Huskies looks on during the second round of the NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Tournament at the Rose Garden on March 21, 2009 in Portland, Oregon. (Photo by Jonathan Ferrey/Getty Images) *** Local Caption *** Lewis Jackson;Quincy Pondexter

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5. Pitt | Seed: 1 | Region: East | High: 5 | Low: 9

Why They Could Win It All: After one close game and a game it deserved to lose, Pitt is back in a more comfortable psychological place with diminished national expectations and something of an underdog. With the pressure off, the team plays looser and Levance Fields started looking physically better in the last game. That helps the perimeter defense and allows DeJuan Blair and Sam Young to provide plenty of headaches on offense.

Why They Will Lose: On the other hand, if Fields is still struggling with his groin injury, that makes the perimeter defense weaker and allows opposing players to get right into Blair and create foul problems for the big guy. That takes away Pitt's rebounding advantage and their major offensive weapon.
-Rich

6. Michigan State | Seed: 2 | Region: Midwest | High: 5 | Low: 9

Why They Could Win It All: While the Spartans can be inconsistent, they can find ways to combat individual bad games due to depth. They have 10 players who have scored at least 16 points in a game this season, which makes it easier to overcome a horrible shooting game by Goran Suton -- like he had against USC. They can run or grind it out defensively, whichever needs to be done. Finally, they are as good a rebounding team as anyone in the nation.

Why They Will Lose: Michigan State's offense can desert it in long stretches. Kansas and Louisville won't put up with a game in the 50s, so the Spartans need to keep finding scoring.
-Snyder

7. Villanova | Seed: 3 | Region: East | High: 6 | Low: 13

Why They Could Win It All: The guard-heavy lineup seems built to dominate in March. With the entire team playing inspired, physical defense, Villanova is able to get out in transition or the fast break for easy baskets and get to the free throw line. Add in Dante Cunningham to provide even more offense inside, and they are hard to stop.

Why They Will Lose: The risk for the Wildcats is against teams that aren't afraid to press right back and get Villanova shooting nothing but jump shots. It neutralizes Cunningham, and the Wildcats can't create foul problems.
-Rich

8. Duke | Seed: 2 | Region: East | High: 5 | Low: 12

Why They Could Win It All: For the first time in recent memory, the Blue Devils are playing like they've got nerves minted from a Detroit assembly line. Forward Gerald Henderson is a matchup problem for any team in the nation and, when he doesn't fall in love with his jump shot, can take over any game. Power forward Kyle Singler can play inside or outside and unconventional point guard Jon Scheyer both takes care of the ball (a better than 2-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio since taking over at the point ) and can score (just under 20 points per game in the same time frame). Duke also has a knack for creating extra offensive possessions. The Blue Devils are an excellent offensive rebounding team as well as in the top 25 in the nation in defensive and offensive turnover percentage. And should the Blue Devils beat Villanova, they've got history on their side in the Elite Eight. Mike Krzyzewski has only lost once in the Elite Eight, and that required a blown 17-point lead against Kentucky in 1998.

Why They Will Lose: The Blue Devils have proven that, despite conventional wisdom, they can handle larger frontcourts. Duke beat Florida State three times, a team that's tall enough to make roof repairs without a ladder, and held Texas' city-block of a center Dexter Pittman to eight points. But they continue to struggle against dribble penetration, so if the Wildcats can spread out further and drive quicker than Duke's help defense can collapse, the Blue Devils could be back home by Friday. Watch foul trouble too. Duke has depth, but it's difficult to replace scorers Singler and Henderson.
-Holloman

9. Oklahoma | Seed: 2| Region: South | High: 4 | Low: 10

Why They Could Win It All: Blake Griffin. He had 28 points and 13 rebounds in the first round and 33 and 17 in the second. He is one of those players that we rarely see in the tournament that can basically take over a game and will his team to victory because, frankly, he's bigger and tougher than everyone else on the court. He plays big and stays out of foul trouble. This team can go as far as the big dude will take them.

Why They Will Lose: If Oklahoma faces an athletic team, they just aren't deep enough to compete. In the second round win over Oklahoma, the bench for the Sooners combined for a total of one point and two rebounds. If Oklahoma has to keep up with North Carolina or face the press of Louisville, they will need able bodies to come in and produce. Unfortunately, it doesn't seem like they have any.
-Bacon

10. Kansas | | Seed: 3 | Region: Midwest | High: 4 | Low: 11

Why They Could Win It All: The Jayhawks have the classic hallmark of a Final Four team with an adjusted and defensive efficiency inside the top 25 (This year joining Gonzaga, Memphis, Connecticut, Missouri and Duke, with North Carolina and Syracuse just slightly outside defensively). In fact, Kansas does the two most important things in basketball exceptionally well, shoot and keep their opponent from shooting the shots they want. Bill Self's team is a great upset candidate in the Sweet 16 against a Michigan State team that already struggles to shoot without Kansas' halfcourt defense in its face. That's without trying to figure out who in this tournament can stop point guard Sherron Collins or Cole Aldrich, who joined the handful of triple-double artists in tournament history.

Why They Will Lose: Turnovers. They commit too many of them and the Jayhawks don't force enough. They're not a great offensive rebounding team despite Aldrich (though they aren't bad), so if you have fewer offensive possessions than your opponent, then you put a lot of pressure on each possession. If Collins has an off game, like the end of the road loss to Missouri, the Jayhawks will be in trouble, particularly against a great offensive rebounding team like Michigan State.
-Wheatley-Schaller

11. Gonzaga | Seed: 4 | Region: South | High: 7 | Low: 15

Why They Could Win It All: As Demetri Goodson's end-to-end chasing-the-ghost-of-Tyus-Edney dash against Western Kentucky might've hinted, this isn't the same sort of fragile team that might end up in tears at center court. The Zags have lost just once in 2009 -- and that was to Memphis -- and destroyed a tournament-worthy team in Saint Mary's in the WCC tournament. Their guard play will match up with anyone and Austin Daye and Josh Heytvelt round out a team with plenty of scoring options. And the Zags hit nearly 40 percent of their 3-point attempts, so no lead is safe against the Bulldogs.

Why They Will Lose: Gonzaga doesn't turn the ball over, but they don't do a very good job of turning opponents over or rebounding, which will lead to more possessions for their opponents. Rebounding, in particular, will be a huge challenge against North Carolina, which gets back some 40 percent of its misses. But don't forget, the last time these two teams played in the 2007 season, Heytvelt dominated Tyler Hansbrough and Gonzaga beat then-No. 2 North Carolina.
-Papagiorgio

12. Syracuse | Seed: 3 | Region: South | High: 9 | Low: 15

Why They Could Win It All: Jonny Flynn never rests and never tires, while Eric Devendorf continues his unprecedented effort at playing as part of the team. The Orange backcourt has actually looked cohesive and playing defense in the 2-3 zone. It has also taken some pressure off of Paul Harris and Arinze Onuaku and let them play freer.

Why They Will Lose: The questions still remain with Devendorf, as he can be prone to try and go 1-on-4 at times and seems to be the only one unaware of his less than sure-handed way of handling the ball. Then Andy Rautins never gets the open looks on the perimeter. The defense slips and so does the whole team.
-Rich

13. Purdue | Seed: 5 | Region: West | High: 11 | Low: 14

Why They Could Win It All: If the Boilers who played the first half against Washington show up, UConn is going to have its hands full. Purdue can't afford to play like it did in the second half, though you have to give the Boilermakers credit for weathering in the storm in a virtual road game. They'll need JaJuan Johnson to continue his dominant play inside, and will need two of the three outside shooters -- Robbie Hummel, E'Twaun Moore, Keaton Grant -- to get hot per game. If that happens, they are strong enough defensively to play a fifth-seed Cinderella like in-state rival Indiana did in 2002?

Why They Will Lose: Can Hummel stay healthy? If not, Purdue doesn't stand chance.The Boilermakers can get muscled down low, so losing Hummel would be a death sentence.
-Snyder/Burke

14. Missouri | Seed: 3 | Region: West | High: 11 | Low: 14

Why They Could Win It All: Pressure. Not even Louisville can match the intensity of Mike Anderson's full-court pressure when it's at its most suffocating. Pit a team that doesn't take great care of the ball against this group and its like throwing a match into a bucket of gasoline. Even if you beat the the Tigers' press, it will keep you out of a comfortable rhythm on offense. Missouri is also the deepest remaining team in the tournament. Memphis will be an interesting matchup. Both teams will press and both teams will cause turnovers, but the Memphis Tigers are much more prone to turning the ball over themselves than their Missouri counterparts

Why They Will Lose: The Tigers cannot keep opponents off the glass, part of the trade-off for their extended defensive pressure. And if you do break the press, odds are you'll be able to get a good look at the basket. The Tigers tend to foul too much, which could be a problem against a great free throw shooting team and you have to wonder how effective the full-court pressure will be away from teams of their fans. The Tigers lost both of their non-conference neutral court contests this year and allowed a much higher offensive efficiency rating against Marquette than they did on average during the regular season and particularly at home.
-Wheatley-Schaller

15. Xavier | Seed: 4 | Region: East | High: 14 | Low: 16

Why They Could Win It All: The Musketeers are a great 3-point shooting team, even though their offense isn't built around long-range shooting. But it hit 40 percent of those it took, so should Xavier fall behind, it's certainly got the shooters to come back. But the Musketeers shine on defensive and on the glass. They're eighth in the nation in adjusted field goal percentage allowed and one of the best rebounding teams in the nation on both sides of the ball.

Why They Will Lose: Turnovers. Like Kansas, the Musketeers give up way too many of them and create too few. Pitt should be able to limit Xavier's effectiveness on the offensive glass (though you would've assumed the same thing about East Tennessee State, yet the Panthers couldn't keep the Buccanneers at bay), so it will have to make every possession count against Pitt. Should the Musketeers sneak by Pitt, they could have an Elite Eight rematch against Duke, a team that dispatched the Musketeers by 18 in December, and the same school that squashed the Musketeers' 2004 Elite Eight appearance.

16 . Arizona | Seed: 12 | Region: Midwest | High: 15 | Low: 16

Why They Could Win It All: Probably the best way for the Wildcats to win the National Championship is if all the other 15 teams ate the same meal this Thursday and became incredibly sick, forcing them to forfeit the rest of March Madness. No 12-seed has ever won the Big Dance since it expanded to 64 teams and, although this run has been nice for this storied school, the only way Arizona could come out on top is if Jordan Hill can average 25 points and 15 rebounds without getting in any foul trouble, Nic Wise can keep shooting lights out and Chase Budinger takes his game to another level. Like, a Carmelo Anthony-in-2003 level.

Why They Will Lose: The team has been a player (or in the case of Friday's game against Louisville, two players) short all season. The team had the opportunity to win a couple of games in the tournament based solely on the talent of the two likely NBA lottery picks, but the 'Cats fourth position on just isn't talented enough to keep advancing. If Jerryd Bayless had stayed another year or Brandon Jennings hadn't jumped ship to Europe or any of the other 20 scenarios would have played out, this team might have a real shot. Unfortunately for the '09 Cinderella, there just isn't enough depth on the roster.
-Bacon