The NCAA tournament is just one day away, so FanHouse writers and editors got together to talk over each region. The Midwest Region got the ball rolling, followed by the East. The South looks like it could go to the top seeds, but what about the West? Here is the last installment of our NCAA FanHouse Roundtables. Chris Burke: Unlike the other three regions, where it's the top seeds' bracket to lose, UConn may not have the same stranglehold over things due to Jerome Dyson's injury. The Huskies have lost two straight and are just 4-3 since Dyson hurt his knee, so they look, to me, like the most vulnerable of all the No. 1 seeds. It doesn't help that, after the first round, they may not have another easy game. The other six teams in the top-half of this bracket can be considered threats, from Washington right on down to Mississippi State and Northern Iowa.
Personally, I think Purdue's looking really, really dangerous at the moment. The Boilermakers are finally healthy, and showed that in the Big Ten Tournament. They really cause issues because of how they get up and guard people. If they get out of the first weekend, UConn could have its hands full big-time. Washington-UConn would be an interesting meeting, too, just because of the Hasheem Thabeet-Jon Brockman potential down low. Thabeet's been a monster at times, but not everyone has a big guy that can challenge him physically. Pitt, one of the teams that does in DeJuan Blair, swept UConn pretty handily in the regular season, so Brockman's presence could cause some worry.
I don't see Cal or Maryland being able to bring down Memphis, and Marquette would have a tough time in the Sweet 16 with its injury issues. It looks fairly apparent that Memphis' strongest challenge prior to the Elite 8 could come from Missouri. The Tigers showed flashes of brilliance throughout Big 12 play, and are athletic enough to hang around there.
Still, there's a reason Memphis is getting picked a ton to come out of this bracket. With Dyson out, the Tigers look like the strongest team.
Matt Snyder: I think Memphis is going to steamroll everyone. I don't have anything factual upon which to base this notion. I just think they have enough talent and now selection committee-provided motivation to take down anyone in their path. It's too bad Mizzou got the three seed in this region, too, because they are playing great basketball right now. They just won't be able to hang with Memphis.
I totally agree about Purdue being very dangerous. They were picked in the top 10 in many preseason polls, but they failed to meet expectations for different reasons. Keaton Grant didn't have much offseason rest, and Robbie Hummel has fought through back issues for the entire conference season. Thus, both had relative off-years. In the Big Ten Tournament, though, we saw what the preseason expectations were based upon. This is how good they can be. I see them getting to the Sweet 16 and giving UConn a very tough test, if not pulling off the huge upset.
I don't know how many first round worse-seeds we'll see winning games. Northern Iowa is dangerous, but I like Purdue right now. Utah State has a tall order against Marquette, and Mississippi State can't keep the ball rolling against Washington, in my view. Can Andy Bernard's alma mater take down Missouri? Very doubtful.
Chas Rich: UConn still has enough to get to the Elite Eight. 4-3 without Dyson. The three losses have been twice to Pitt and the 6-OT game to Syracuse. The 4 wins came against a Dominic James-free Marquette team, Seton Hall, South Florida and Notre Dame. So are they really struggling or just not good enough against the upper-tier teams? I definitely put them in the Sweet Sixteen, and I think they still get to the Elite Eight.
I really like Mississippi State for the 4-13 upset. Just the way the Bulldogs have been playing since late January. Heck if you look over their season, even in their losses they rarely went quietly. In conference, only Auburn seemed to have their number.
What is the hourly status on Hummel's back? Isn't that the big question for Purdue. If the rest is helping and he can play through the discomfort, yeah. Purdue is a lot better team. I still do not see them getting past UConn, though.
The lower bracket is all Memphis. That is a consensus thing. They are set up. They have the disrespect card. They have match-ups that seem to play to their strengths. If they do not make the Final Four, that will be more surprising to me than Pitt or even North Carolina.
I like Utah State over Marquette. Marquette still has not figured things out without Dominic James. Mizzou, though, should rip through that pod to the Sweet Sixteen to play a tough, brutal game with Memphis. A Mizzou-Memphis match-up might be the best of the potential Sweet Sixteen games.
Snyder: I agree with the statement about Memphis. I think they are the surest team to the Final Four in the entire field. (Which is really weird from a 2-seed)
Adam Papagiorgio: Another agreement on Memphis. Having the No. 2 seed is beneficial here. Nobody will motivate better than John Calipari. That is really bad news for Cal State-Northridge. Incidentally, that Calipari vs. Bobby Braswell matchup might be the worst coaching miss-match in NCAA history.
UConn does not impress me when they have a No. 1 next to its name.
I hate Mississippi State. Georgia made a huge, improbable run in the SEC tournament last year and flamed out. And this might be the West Coast homer talking, but Washington is really good. Isaiah Thomas is a guy I believe can be a star in this tournament.
Utah State is going to get blown out. The Aggies lost to St. Mary's without Patty Mills. The lose of Dominic James doesn't hurt them here.
Memphis vs. Washington in the Elite 8, but I'll take the Tigers to take this bracket.
Jacob Wheatley-Schaller: Well, Georgia also went 4-12 in the SEC last year; MSU was 9-7 this season. They're underseeded at 13; I mean seriously, would you rather play them or Portland St.?
Even beyond round 1, Washington has an absolutely killer draw; Purdue is the best 5 by far, and even if they beat them they'd be looking at UConn and then probably Memphis (or Mizzou). I think the Boilermakers take care of business at least to the Sweet 16 though, and have a decent shot at knocking off UConn.
Shiloh Carder: First off, the NCAA made an error in this bracket. Texas A&M faces off against BYU for the second straight year in a No. 8 vs No. 9 game in the West Region. C'mon! Give these guys someone else to play. Mix it up. You could have switched A&M with Oklahoma State (No. 8 seed in the East).
Most people believe that we are destined for a UConn-Memphis regional final. That could happen and, if it did, I think Memphis comes out on top.
The problem is that I'm not sure that Memphis will get there. Another Tiger team, Missouri, is hell on wheels and will press the heck out of Tyreke Evans. The weird thing is that if Missouri gets to the Elite 8, I don't think they will beat UConn. The best team in this region is Memphis. However, it is all about matchups and I really want to see that Missouri-Memphis game.
I'm really pulling for Utah State to beat Marquette (by the way, the state of Utah has three teams in this tournament. So does the state of North Carolina).
Other than that, this is the one bracket that seems to have the Sweet 16 already set: UConn-Purdue and Memphis-Mizzou. That's when this thing will get cooking.
Papagiorgio: Washington won the Pac-10 -- a conference that got in six teams. Mississippi State would be playing in the NIT if it hadn't won the conference tournament.
Ray Holloman: I think this could turn out to be the most exciting region.
In the first round, I really look forward to the Cal-Maryland matchup in the 7-10 game. Cal is a great 3-point shooting team and led the nation with a 43.2 percent clip from behind the arc, which is just a ridiculous number. How nuts is that? Remember all the praise J.J. Redick stockpiled by the bushel for being such a great shooter? Yeah, he never shot that high a percentage individually. Cal did it as a team. But don't be confused, this isn't VMI, their offense isn't stand around the 3-point line and jack, they only get roughly a quarter of their points from behind the arc. So it'll be interesting how Gary Williams defense this team. He's not going to be able to pack the lane like he did against Wake Forest or Jerome Randle will absolutely bury the Terrapins from the arc (if you saw the end of the Cal-Arizona game the last weekend of the regular season, the loss that should've knocked Arizona out of the tournament, that's what would happen), so I'd expect to see a lot of pressure out of Maryland.
On the other side of the ball, Greivis Vasquez is going to be able to drive against the Cal man-to-man as freely as he wants, so if the Venezuelan alleged proprietor of Cameron Indoor is shooting the ball well, don't be surprised if he flirts with a triple double.
Neither team rebounds particularly well and both teams take care of the ball. But the Terps do turn teams over, which the Bears don't. That should mean more possessions for Maryland. But I love teams that shoot well and Cal is a great shooting team. Don't be surprised if the Bears make noise in the bottom of that bracket, particularly with Mike Montgomery at the helm. Look at how well this team has done despite being so radically different from the classic Stanford teams Montgomery built around big men, and that should tell you all you need to know about how good a coach he is. I like Cal, but this could be one of the best games of the first round.
Elsewhere, I like Missouri, but I'm really curious how Mike Anderson's pressure defense is going to work away from home. The Tigers won at Texas and at Oklahoma State this year, but the turnover percentage for the Tiger defense was lower than their season average. Look at those big time wins against Oklahoma and Kansas. Against Oklahoma, they posted a 30 percent turnover rate. Against Kansas it was 35 percent. Can the Tigers come anywhere close to that on a neutral floor against Memphis? Or could Marquette even slip in and give Missouri trouble in the second round?
On Memphis, like everyone else, it's hard to say exactly what you can expect. The Tigers hammered Gonzaga, and that certainly means something, but we've haven't seen them against any other NCAA tournament level teams in months. I don't want to minimize Conference USA, but it's just hard to know what a team is going to react in that situation. It's like a boxing prospect who looks tremendous against the club level guys, but then takes that first punch from a gateway fighter. You don't know how they're going to react. Frankly, I think back to the 2004 tournament where St. Joe's entered as a one seed and everyone belittled the Hawks until they actually got into the tournament, went to the elite eight and came within a few John Lucas heroics of going to the Final Four. So I think Memphis will show nicely in the tournament. But again, that's part of what makes this region so exciting.
On the top side of the bracket, I agree with Jacob that Purdue could be a dangerous team. They're seeded off a season in which Robbie Hummel played with a few health issues, and now that he's finally healthy (or so it seems) I think that's a much better team than they've been seeded. Having said that, though, Washington is a brutal matchup and Connecticut is just as bad. If Purdue's jump shots are falling, they're going to be tough to beat, but if they're not, the Boilermakers aren't going to be able to rebound against either team. At Washington, Jon Brockman just sucks down rebounds. He's in the top 25 in both offensive and defensive rebounding percentage. Watching he and Mississippi State shot eraser Jarvis Varnado battle in the paint is going to be must-see TV. I'd probably go chalk and take Washington over Purdue, but look at how well Arizona State shot the ball against the Huskies in the Pac-10 tournament. If Purdue gets hot from outside, Purdue Pete marches on.
Up top, it's hard to construct an argument against Connecticut except that the only NCAA tournament team the Huskies have beaten since Jerome Dyson went down is Marquette, which is obviously without Dominic James. The one thing that really worries me, though, about this Connecticut team is that it doesn't shoot free throws well and its poise in overtime against Syracuse made it seem like a long time since AJ Price hit that ridiculous 3-pointer to send the Gonzaga game into overtime. And these things will kill you in the NCAA tournament. At some point, you will be tested down the stretch and you'll need to hit free throws and get the ball to someone who will win you the game, not shoot 25-foot 3-pointers as Connecticut seemed to do again and again at the end of overtimes against 'Cuse. But frankly I worry about the first one more. Calhoun can draw up plays, but he can't make his players hit from the charity stripe.
Shane Bacon: I have one very important rule when picking teams to make long runs in the NCAA Tournament -- unless they are incredibly talented, I don't like teams trying to continue a streak. Memphis, by all means, might be the best team in the nation, but we wouldn't really know that. They played a total of three teams that were ranked at the time the Tigers tipped off with them and lost two of those games, to Georgetown (yikes) and Syracuse (oy!). Even as impressive as their Gonzaga win (on the road, nonetheless) was, I just don't think you can expect a team to win games against teams they haven't faced when they just reeled off 22 straight. It's too tough.
Memphis might have to play California (tough Pac-10 team that can shoot lights out from outside), Missouri (sleeper in the bracket if you ask me), and then Connecticut or Purdue to advance out of this region. I just don't see it happening.
My money's on the Boilermakers, but this is the bracket is one you could argue has five teams that could be in Detroit and you wouldn't even be that surprised.
Snyder: Regarding Hummel, there haven't been any concrete updates from Purdue. It seems like he's as healthy as he's going to get. What we do know is that prior to the Big Ten Tournament he had four full days of rest. In the first two games, he scored 39 points on 14-24 shooting. In the championship -- the third straight day Purdue played -- Hummel went 2-10 from the floor, though he did amass a game-high 11 rebounds.
It seems like the conclusion is that he needs rest. When the Boilers take the court Thursday, he'll have had three full days of rest. Throughout the tournament, he'll always have had at least one full day off.
Bottom line, I think he's going to play like he did in the first two games of the Big Ten Tourney.
Papagiorgio: Washington won the Pac-10 -- a conference that got in six teams. Mississippi State would be playing in the NIT if it hadn't won the conference tournament.
Ray Holloman: I think this could turn out to be the most exciting region.
In the first round, I really look forward to the Cal-Maryland matchup in the 7-10 game. Cal is a great 3-point shooting team and led the nation with a 43.2 percent clip from behind the arc, which is just a ridiculous number. How nuts is that? Remember all the praise J.J. Redick stockpiled by the bushel for being such a great shooter? Yeah, he never shot that high a percentage individually. Cal did it as a team. But don't be confused, this isn't VMI, their offense isn't stand around the 3-point line and jack, they only get roughly a quarter of their points from behind the arc. So it'll be interesting how Gary Williams defense this team. He's not going to be able to pack the lane like he did against Wake Forest or Jerome Randle will absolutely bury the Terrapins from the arc (if you saw the end of the Cal-Arizona game the last weekend of the regular season, the loss that should've knocked Arizona out of the tournament, that's what would happen), so I'd expect to see a lot of pressure out of Maryland.
On the other side of the ball, Greivis Vasquez is going to be able to drive against the Cal man-to-man as freely as he wants, so if the Venezuelan alleged proprietor of Cameron Indoor is shooting the ball well, don't be surprised if he flirts with a triple double.
Neither team rebounds particularly well and both teams take care of the ball. But the Terps do turn teams over, which the Bears don't. That should mean more possessions for Maryland. But I love teams that shoot well and Cal is a great shooting team. Don't be surprised if the Bears make noise in the bottom of that bracket, particularly with Mike Montgomery at the helm. Look at how well this team has done despite being so radically different from the classic Stanford teams Montgomery built around big men, and that should tell you all you need to know about how good a coach he is. I like Cal, but this could be one of the best games of the first round.
Elsewhere, I like Missouri, but I'm really curious how Mike Anderson's pressure defense is going to work away from home. The Tigers won at Texas and at Oklahoma State this year, but the turnover percentage for the Tiger defense was lower than their season average. Look at those big time wins against Oklahoma and Kansas. Against Oklahoma, they posted a 30 percent turnover rate. Against Kansas it was 35 percent. Can the Tigers come anywhere close to that on a neutral floor against Memphis? Or could Marquette even slip in and give Missouri trouble in the second round?
On Memphis, like everyone else, it's hard to say exactly what you can expect. The Tigers hammered Gonzaga, and that certainly means something, but we've haven't seen them against any other NCAA tournament level teams in months. I don't want to minimize Conference USA, but it's just hard to know what a team is going to react in that situation. It's like a boxing prospect who looks tremendous against the club level guys, but then takes that first punch from a gateway fighter. You don't know how they're going to react. Frankly, I think back to the 2004 tournament where St. Joe's entered as a one seed and everyone belittled the Hawks until they actually got into the tournament, went to the elite eight and came within a few John Lucas heroics of going to the Final Four. So I think Memphis will show nicely in the tournament. But again, that's part of what makes this region so exciting.
On the top side of the bracket, I agree with Jacob that Purdue could be a dangerous team. They're seeded off a season in which Robbie Hummel played with a few health issues, and now that he's finally healthy (or so it seems) I think that's a much better team than they've been seeded. Having said that, though, Washington is a brutal matchup and Connecticut is just as bad. If Purdue's jump shots are falling, they're going to be tough to beat, but if they're not, the Boilermakers aren't going to be able to rebound against either team. At Washington, Jon Brockman just sucks down rebounds. He's in the top 25 in both offensive and defensive rebounding percentage. Watching he and Mississippi State shot eraser Jarvis Varnado battle in the paint is going to be must-see TV. I'd probably go chalk and take Washington over Purdue, but look at how well Arizona State shot the ball against the Huskies in the Pac-10 tournament. If Purdue gets hot from outside, Purdue Pete marches on.
Up top, it's hard to construct an argument against Connecticut except that the only NCAA tournament team the Huskies have beaten since Jerome Dyson went down is Marquette, which is obviously without Dominic James. The one thing that really worries me, though, about this Connecticut team is that it doesn't shoot free throws well and its poise in overtime against Syracuse made it seem like a long time since AJ Price hit that ridiculous 3-pointer to send the Gonzaga game into overtime. And these things will kill you in the NCAA tournament. At some point, you will be tested down the stretch and you'll need to hit free throws and get the ball to someone who will win you the game, not shoot 25-foot 3-pointers as Connecticut seemed to do again and again at the end of overtimes against 'Cuse. But frankly I worry about the first one more. Calhoun can draw up plays, but he can't make his players hit from the charity stripe.
Shane Bacon: I have one very important rule when picking teams to make long runs in the NCAA Tournament -- unless they are incredibly talented, I don't like teams trying to continue a streak. Memphis, by all means, might be the best team in the nation, but we wouldn't really know that. They played a total of three teams that were ranked at the time the Tigers tipped off with them and lost two of those games, to Georgetown (yikes) and Syracuse (oy!). Even as impressive as their Gonzaga win (on the road, nonetheless) was, I just don't think you can expect a team to win games against teams they haven't faced when they just reeled off 22 straight. It's too tough.
Memphis might have to play California (tough Pac-10 team that can shoot lights out from outside), Missouri (sleeper in the bracket if you ask me), and then Connecticut or Purdue to advance out of this region. I just don't see it happening.
My money's on the Boilermakers, but this is the bracket is one you could argue has five teams that could be in Detroit and you wouldn't even be that surprised.
Snyder: Regarding Hummel, there haven't been any concrete updates from Purdue. It seems like he's as healthy as he's going to get. What we do know is that prior to the Big Ten Tournament he had four full days of rest. In the first two games, he scored 39 points on 14-24 shooting. In the championship -- the third straight day Purdue played -- Hummel went 2-10 from the floor, though he did amass a game-high 11 rebounds.
It seems like the conclusion is that he needs rest. When the Boilers take the court Thursday, he'll have had three full days of rest. Throughout the tournament, he'll always have had at least one full day off.
Bottom line, I think he's going to play like he did in the first two games of the Big Ten Tourney.
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
3-18-2009 @ 9:31PM
jwoot said...
Memphis is a good team, but it's hard to say. Not sure if they are as talented as last season, and I'm not sure how well they would have done in the ACC or Big East..
http://www.ticketzinger.com/tickets/ncaa-tournament-tickets-south-regional.aspx
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3-18-2009 @ 4:38PM
Scott said...
I guess we'll just have to wait and see. They're definitely not as experienced a team, but definitely capable of winning it all.
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3-18-2009 @ 5:32PM
mdkin01 said...
I live in the Memphis area and saw all but 3 of their games this season. If they are hitting their shots, nobody will beat them if the officiating is even. If they are hitting and missing, they will be in the game till the end and anything could happen against a team like UConn, Louisville, UNC, or Pittsburgh. I truly dont think anybody else in the country other than 1 of those 4 could beat them even if they dont play their best game, and they should have been the No. 1 seed in their region. I know they didnt look good against the Big East earlier in the season but this isnt the same team that lost to Syracuse and Georgetown in December.
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3-19-2009 @ 9:53AM
discgolf1974 said...
look all yall need to quit hating on the tigers.i have lived here for 35 years and have been watching tiger baskettball since i knew what it was about.if they wouldn't so scard they would let us n a better conf but they won't so everybody just needs to back off and let MEMPHIS do what they do best win win win win peace out talk more the game at 11:15
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3-19-2009 @ 1:47PM
mikebw1 said...
Plain and simply put memphis has a history of winning. It isn't just a fluke either. It's consitent. They may not always be #1, but they ALWAYS rank high. expect it to happen again. Period.
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