The Joy of the No. 12 Seed

On Selection Sunday, I had basically given up hope that my alma mater, the University of Arizona, was going to make the NCAA tournament this year. The Wildcats had dropped five of their last six games, won a whopping two (two!) road victories all season, and just flat out couldn't pull out close wins.

As I switched from golf to the selection show on Sunday, however (Joe Lunardi be damned), the Wildcats wound up making it. And they didn't just make it into the tournament, they got what I consider the eighth-best seed in the bracket. My point: Being a No. 12 seed is the eighth-best seed in each region. Confused? Read on.

Seeds Nos. 1-7 are fine. If you are the top seed you're obviously in the best spot of each region, and even the No. 7 seed gets to take on a No. 10 in the first round and then would have the opportunity to knock off a No. 2, which isn't nearly as crazy as beating the top dog.

Here is where the math begins. If you are a No. 8 or No. 9 seed in the tournament, you have a better chance of advancing past the first round of play. That is simple. Both teams are supposed to be evenly matched and, most of the time, either could take that first game. The problem is, your second-round match is against the No. 1 seed in each region. Tall task against a team talented enough to be ranked in the top four.

What are the chances if you advance past the weekend? In the 24 years since the tournament expanded to 64 teams, a No. 8 or No. 9 seed has advanced out of the first weekend only 12 times. That is only a 12.5 percent chance you will win your first game and go on to knock off the No. 1 team in your region.

On the other hand, the No. 12 seeds in the tournament have advanced to the Sweet 16 or beyond 16 times since '85 for a rate of 16.7 percent. That doesn't mean a No. 8 or No. 9 can't make a later run than a No. 12. In '85, No. 8 Villanova won the National Championship. In 2000, Wisconsin and North Carolina went to the Final Four. Auburn in '86, Boston College in '94, Rhode Island in '98 and Alabama in '04 -- all teams that went to the Elite Eight as an No. 8 or No. 9.

By contrast, out of those 16 No. 12s, only one (Missouri in '02) has been past the regional semifinals. That team got to the Elite Eight and was beaten by No. 2 Oklahoma.

Basically, this is all relative. A Weber State would consider its season a success by advancing to the Sweet 16 while a Connecticut or Duke would be disappointed if they didn't make it all the way to the championship game. Sometimes just advancing can do a lot for a smaller program and that is why building your program year by year, tournament win by precious tournament win, can really mean a lot in the long run.

No matter the seed you're given, it's going to be a test, especially this year. But from one fan of a No. 12 seed to the thousands others out there, is it too much to ask that '09 bumps up that 16.7 percent average?