The NCAA tournament is just one day away, so FanHouse writers and editors got together to talk over each region. The Midwest Region got the ball rolling, followed by the East. Now, the South. What is intriguing about this region, and who do we like? Matt Snyder: The one thing I like about the South Bracket is it's the one bracket with a bit of a mid-major flavor. Butler and Gonzaga should both have a shot at taking down Ty Lawson (right) and the mighty Tar Heels, and Western Kentucky has a solid chance at beating Illinois in the first round.
Unfortunately, if three mid-majors win in the first round, this would probably be the most for any bracket -- depending upon your definition of the term "mid-major."
If Syracuse has recharged their batteries by then -- and they surely will have done so -- an Oklahoma vs. Syracuse game has worlds of potential, as does the winner facing off against North Carolina. If we do get to see UNC vs. OK, the Blake Griffin vs. Tyler Hansbrough battle in the paint would be unreal. Hopefullly, just from a pure entertainment aspect, Carolina chooses to go this route instead of using Deon Thompson or Ed Davis on Griffin.
Finally, the team of intrigue here, for me, is Michigan. With Manny Harris and DeShawn Sims playing to their full potential, Michigan is good enough to play with anybody. They could give Oklahoma major headaches. Of course, they are just as likely to get throttled in the first round by Clemson.
Shiloh Carder: This should be called the "If Bracket". There are a lot of iffy teams filling it. Clemson-Michigan is an awesome matchup. Either can win "if" they play like they are capable (and act like they are playing Duke). "If" UNC and Oklahoma can stay true to their seeds then we get that great Hansbrough-Griffin matchup. "If" Syracuse has anything left in the tank, they could make a run to the Final Four.
You're right: the South Bracket has the most mid-major flavor. Both Butler and Gonzaga has a chance to take down North Carolina. Western Kentucky has a winnable game against a hurt Illinois team. I think Morgan State has the ability to scare the hell out of Oklahoma. Even the UNC-Radford game will have some drama as 6-11 Art Parakhouski gets to go against Hansbrough and the rest of that Carolina front line.
The problem is that Gonzaga, Akron and Western Kentucky are in the same pod and those mid-majors will cannibalize each other.
Arizona State-Temple could be one of the better games. I've been a Dionte Christmas fan since last year's A-10 tournament.
There is a lot to prove in this bracket by a lot of people and programs.
Shane Bacon: I think we are all looking past what was once thought of as the best college basketball team of 2008-09 by leaps and bounds. Injuries have plagued North Carolina, but if Ty Lawson is healthy they make it to Detroit. Plain and simple.
I have said for a while that I think Oklahoma is overrated and North Carolina couldn't have been handed a better No. 2 seed in their bracket to face off against in a possible Elite Eight matchup. Thing is, I don't see Oklahoma going that far. Arizona State has been spotty this season but this seems like the time for a guy like James Harden to step up and dominate like a NBA ready guard should do. If he can get that going, I see the Sun Devils taking down Syracuse and giving the Sooners all they want deep in the South.
Just thinking of that possible Western Kentucky-Gonzaga meeting gets me truly excited for this tournament to fire up.
Chris Burke: I'm sort of thinking the same thing about North Carolina, though a toe injury for a speedy point guard like Ty Lawson is definitely cause for concern. That said, if he's healthy, I don't know that there's a team in this region capable of both running with UNC and also getting some defensive stops against the Tar Heels. Pitt strikes me as that type of team, but they wouldn't hit them until the Final Four. Blake Griffin vs. Tyler Hansbrough would be fun, but that's about the only intrigue I see for Carolina.
With that said, this bracket also has the potential to be the most wide-open. Any team from the 13-seed on up has a legitimate opportunity to get to the Sweet 16.
Syracuse's ability to turn back around and be ready for this worries me -- yes, there's plenty of time to rest up, but a lot of times, teams that expend a ton of energy in conference tournaments have trouble rejuvenating in time to get hot again. The Orange are probably the team most likely to give UNC fits in this region, with or without Ty Lawson, but they could just as easily lose in the 2nd round.
Chas Rich: I can't disagree with anyone over UNC. They seem to have a clear road to the Final Four. I just think they are plain better than Gonzaga, even if Lawson isn't 100 percent. And like them over anyone from the other half of the bracket.
The countervailing argument to the fact that there are three quality non-BCS conference teams in one pod is that it nearly locks that pod into getting a mid-major team in the Sweet 16 unless Illinois surprises us all. Though, I would have liked Gonzaga's chances of getting to the Sweet Sixteen as a 4-seed in any other bracket.
The question about Oklahoma and Clemson seem to be the same. Are they still struggling like they did with the end of the season and conference tournament? Has the week off helped them or not? Both went out in opening games of their conference tournaments. Oklahoma lost five of their last seven (with and without Blake Griffin) and Clemson lost four of five. Neither exactly inspires great confidence. If they meet in the second round game I would not touch that game.
As for Michigan, I just don't know. I don't know which team will show up with a week off.
I also like Temple to pull a first round upset over Arizona State.
Syracuse seems like a lock for the Sweet Sixteen to me. They should be able to handle their pod. Whether they make it to the Elite Eight, though depends on whether it is Oklahoma or Clemson.
I love the Orange's chances against Clemson. They can handle Clemson's press with Flynn running things.
Burke: I'll agree about Michigan. I wouldn't be any more surprised to see Michigan go to the Elite 8 than I would to see it lose by 35 in the first round. Michigan's sort of the poster child for a group of teams that have been kind of schizophrenic this season -- depending on which team buckles down and focuses, you could have any number of advancement possibilities.
Bacon: While I agree with you Burke, I think you could say that same thing for a lot of teams in this year's tournament. Win three straight games or get bounced by double digits in the first round.
Ray Holloman: I completely agree with Shane on his assessment here. I love the Tar Heels to come out of this region and think they won't even have to worry about Oklahoma, except to send them a "Wish you were here," post card. A lot gets made of their questionable defense, and it's a valid thing to question considering they lost their top perimeter defender in Marcus Ginyard and Tyler Hansbrough adds very little defensively (His .4 blocks per game is incredibly low for a big man). But keeping Hansbrough out of the blocking shots game keeps him out of foul trouble and allows him to do what he does best, which is score, draw fouls and get to the free throw line. And there are few better in the nation than Hansbrough. His fifth overall in fouls drawn per 40 minutes, is a very skilled free throw shooter for a post player, and, while it seems oddly quiet on this front, is going to snap the ACC scoring mark in his first game in this tournament. Maybe it's because it's a recent record, but when JJ Redick set the mark in 2006, it was like the Shamwow infomercial of sports television, on all the time.
But even though this will be the worst of the three defensive squads for this particular junior-senior North Carolina team, it's still not bad. The Heels are 35th in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency.
And frankly, it's been the offense that's killed them the last two years. That brutal scoring drought against Georgetown cost North Carolina a spot in the Final Four in 2007 and last year Kansas ran out to a 40-12 lead in the first half. Despite that burst, the Jayhawks were noticeably less efficient on offense than their season average, but that slow start on offense just doomed North Carolina. The Heels averaged 117.7 points per 100 possessions last year. Against Kansas, they managed an 83.1.
But the question for them, as Burke said, is how healthy is Ty Lawson? Roy Williams has been accused of playing fast and loose with injury information (you may recall a Mike Krzyzewski comment led to Williams suggesting the pitch man coach his own damn team), so who knows? Plus, the only game I really see Lawson's injury being an issue in is that potential Elite Eight game and the national championship game, if they advance that far. Presumably he'll play little to none against Radford as North Carolina will walk all over the alma mater of assistant coach Steve Robinson (who is enshrined in the Highlanders Hall of Fame, fwiw). Then after watching him slice up Duke on two days rest, I have no concerns that even if he has a little pain, he'll have no trouble against LSU or Butler (if he plays at all) or against Gonzaga, with another few days to rest up. That Elite Eight matchup could be a problem, but who out of the bottom of that bracket is scary?
Oklahoma is sliding not so much because of Blake Griffin's injury, but because of the trouble its having in the backcourt, at least other than Willie Warren. They're struggling to score and they're turning the ball over. So what I'm interested to see is, if Clemson wins its opening-round game against Michigan, will the Tigers be able to press Oklahoma out of the tournament? Sure, Clemson is sliding too, but if Oliver Purnell can right the ship, this could be an early shocker. The Tigers create a ton of turnovers. That 27-point obliteration of Duke was one of the finest displays of defensive basketball you'll ever see.
But to get there, the Tigers have to get around Michigan, who is really just a throw-a-dart-at-a-dartboard kind of team. They get a higher percentage of their points from 3-pointers than any team in the tournament, so if you feel lucky pick 'em, if not, pick Clemson. They'll have no answer for Trevor Booker in the post, but when you're scoring in bunches from the perimeter does it matter? Clemson too, is a good 3-point shooting team, but they're not so great at defending the 3-point line. Michigan will get open looks if they can handle the Tigers' pressure. But will the Wolverines hit them?
As for the rest of the bracket, I like Western Kentucky over Illinois as the 12-5, because if Chester Frazier doesn't play, and he didn't practice Monday, that's not the same Illinois team (and that same Illinois team once put a 33-point stinker against Penn State). The Illini don't get to the line much at all, either, and if you can't manufacture points from the line, you rely on field goal shooting, which is much streakier.
Be wary of Syracuse. One hot streak doesn't make up for a season. The Orange are a good team, but the last time they had a winning streak that included wins over two NCAA tournament teams before the Big East tournament was .... sometime before this season. Stephen F. Austin will be an interesting matchup in the first round, because, while SFA can't rebound, even against a zone which, by design, is hard to rebound out of, they produce a ton of turnovers. And Syracuse coughs the ball up a fair amount. So expect that 14-3 game to be a little more interesting before the 'Cuse pulls away. Syracuse too is a bad free throw shooting team and that almost always catches up to you over the course of six games.
I think Arizona State is disgustingly under-seeded as a sixth line team. You're talking about being one possession away from winning the Pac-10 tournament, having nothing approaching a bad loss and one of the 10 best players in America. And that doesn't even mention Jeff Pendergraph. What the heck was the selection committee thinking? I wouldn't be surprised to see the Sun Devils in the Elite Eight, which could match Herb Sendek against former rival North Carolina.
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
3-21-2009 @ 2:07PM
littlerake18 said...
NCAAB: ROUND 2 TRENDS
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