A Sixth Sense for Upsets

Over the past few months, Bracketology Busters has broken down potential brackets and examined teams that were significantly more or less talented than their projected seeds. With the real thing now here, we'll continue with the same type of analysis, just with less speculation.

Today we'll take a look at an incredible quirk in this year's bracket -- the four No. 6 seeds are arguably stronger than any other seeded group, save the four seeds each at Nos. 1 and 2.

Every year the bracket has some quirks, and this year is no different. The most dramatic one is the incredible strength of the sixth line. Here are the four No. 6 seeds in this year's tourney:

West Virginia | Seed: 6 (Midwest) | Pomeroy Rank: 8th (out of 344)
UCLA | Seed: 6 (East) | Pomeroy Rank: 9th
Arizona St. | Seed: 6 (South) | Pomeroy Rank: 12th
Marquette | Seed: 6 (West) | Pomeroy Rank: 20th

The average rating of the squads listed above, according to Ken Pomeroy's fantastic ratings is, rather incredibly, 0.947. To put that in perspective, it's the third highest of any line, trailing only the top two. That's right: the No. 6 seeds in this tournament are arguably better than the threes.

This potentially sets up some very interesting matchups -- not to mention point spreads -- in the second round. All three theoretical games -- West Virginia-Kansas, UCLA-Villanova, Arizona State-Syracuse -- would be around a pick 'em. The Bruins would be in much better shape if they weren't faced with playing a road game in the second round. And that's not hyperbole; Villanova played three Big East games at the Wachovia Center this year. Compare that to the "host," St. Joseph's, which played there just once, in a November tilt against Rider.

So, although I wouldn't rule it out, the combination of atypically lax defense and the geographical issues make UCLA somewhat unlikely to make a deep run. Arizona State is in only a slightly better situation in the South. Temple, probably the best of the 11-seeds, is a tough first-round draw. Syracuse, which has been great lately but only OK prior to their last eight games, is neither a good nor bad potential first weekend opponent.

Where it really gets interesting for the Sun Devils, though, is if they're still alive on Sunday night. Their most likely Sweet 16 opponent would be Oklahoma and, quite simply, the Sun Devils are playing better ball than the Sooners right now. Arizona State was just a furious comeback by a desperate USC team away from winning the Pac-10; on the other hand Oklahoma has lost four of six, including a first-round exit at the hands of Oklahoma State in the Big 12 tournament. Arizona State has some work to do first to take advantage of being paired with the weakest No. 2 seed, but the Sun Devils have a very legitimate opportunity to reach the regional final.

The most interesting team on the six line, though, is West Virginia. Because of some close losses in their more visible games and great performances in less prominent ones, the Mountaineers flew under the radar for the majority of the season. That changed a bit when they beat Pittsburgh Thursday night in New York, but they're still a team with the the talent of a three seed.

All three of the six seeds mentioned here are solid squads, though. What sets WVU apart is their draw. They'll open with the weakest of the No. 11 seeds, Dayton, on Friday. The Flyers boast a gaudy record (26-7), but don't let that fool you; it's inflated by an inordinate number of close wins, as Dayton has been the sixth "luckiest" team in the nation. They've also struggled lately, losing four of their last seven and bowing out in the semis of the A-10 tournament.

If the Mountaineers beat Dayton, West Virginia's next opponent would be Kansas, although don't lock the Jayhawks into the second round just yet; they've drawn the strongest 14 in North Dakota State. Either way, WVU -- one of just two teams in the top 15 in the nation in both offensive and defensive efficiency -- would have a good shot to move on. The young Jayhawks have proven to be vulnerable outside of Lawrence lately, losing their last two non-home games to Texas Tech and Baylor, neither of which is exactly a powerhouse. And while the Bison are a strong No. 14 seed, they're still a No. 14 seed.

Looking ahead, in the Elite 8, West Virginia would likely face off against Michigan State, although a Sweet 16 appearance from suddenly viable USC isn't out of the question. The Spartans had a good year, but West Virginia could very realistically advance, as Michigan State has struggled with turnovers at times this year, and forcing steals is one of WVU's strengths. Throw in the possibility of a regional final matchup with Louisville -- a team they lost to at Freedom Hall by just six points back in January, and would've beaten in Morgantown a couple weeks ago if not for uncharacteristically good three-point shooting by Terrence Williams and Earl Clark -- and it looks like the Mountaineers are the six seed that's most likely to advance to Detroit. And in this group, that's saying something.