Madness, Not Louisville, Will Reign

Unless you cheer when your boss gets a raise, growl "box out!" every time N.C. State's Derrick Whittenburg's slow arcing shot in N.C. State's mammoth 1983 upset lands in the hands of history, or still get angry wondering why Goliath's coaching staff didn't think to defend against the slingshot, then the last two years have been a rotten time for fans of the upset in college hoops.

Sure, there were a few dandies, like Virginia Commonwealth knocking off a Duke team so delicate you'd think it was made by Swarovski in 2007, Western Kentucky running to the Sweet 16 in 2008, and Davidson one-upping the Hilltoppers that same year. But for the most part, the last two tournaments have been like a comic book without the pictures.

Something has clearly been missing.

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Excitement. Charisma. Upsets. The madness.

The last two Final Fours were so darn big-guy corporate that you'd be excused for thinking it was IBM and not UNC marching to the Final Four. You could've flipped to C-SPAN and not noticed much of a difference.

But for those whose favorites are the favorites, 2009 is going to be one snarlingly angry wakeup call.

Even for Louisville, the double champions of that Big East, where basketball and marathons meet mixed martial arts.

Of course, that hasn't stopped the pundits from rushing to crown Louisville so fast you'd think they were trying to dodge a recount.

But when it comes to the chances of an all No. 1 Final Four occurring again? No way, no shape, no how. Not happening. Put money on it if you want, but you might as well parlay it with the odds of Randy Johnson appearing on the next GQ cover. Neither are paying out.

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Madness, not Louisville and the enclave of No. 1, will rule in 2009.

In fact, it has all season.

When the Cardinals take over the top spot in the AP poll Monday afternoon, they'll be the ninth different reign at No. 1.

Only once in the 64-team era has there been nine separate runs at No. 1 in the AP poll. That year was 1994 and, like Louisville, the season-ending No. 1 seemed like a heckuva bet to win the title. The ACC champion North Carolina Tar Heels returned every major member of its 1993 national title team except George Lynch, and brought in a recruiting class that included Jeff McInnis, Rasheed Wallace and Jerry Stackhouse. Wallace and Stackhouse were stars from their first game and the Tar Heels beat Tim Duncan, Randolph Childress and the Wake Forest Demon Deacons for the ACC title.

And by the end of the first weekend, they'd already turned millions of brackets into scrap paper courtesy of Bill Curley and Boston College in the second round.

The chaos didn't end there. The Eagles went to the Elite Eight. Twelfth-seeded Tulsa (coached by a rising star named Tubby Smith) went to the Sweet 16. Only one No. 1 seed, Arkansas, which spent the most time at No. 1 in the regular season, made it to the Final Four, and the Razorbacks narrowly ousted second-seeded Duke in the final.

This year could be even nuttier.

The No. 1 ranking changed hands every week over the final five polls of the season, which is the first time that's happened in the 64-team era. And, according to the research of ESPN's Pat Forde, this is the first time since 1939 that the fewest number of losses in the field is three, which belongs to Memphis.

So, if lower-seeded teams have been picking off top-ranked teams with the regularity of Bruce Pearl checking in on his dry cleaner, why, oh why, would they stop now?

Even for the Cardinals.

Because as good as they are, they're far from unbeatable.

Should Louisville make the Final Four, they'll do what only one team since 2002 has done, which is make the final weekend despite a field goal percentage outside the top 55 in college basketball. Only Texas in 2003 (the first year the NCAA's archived stats are easily accessible) advanced to the Final Four with a worse field goal percentage rank. The other 23 all ranged in the top 55 and the tournament champions in that span averaged just under 11th nationally.

Of course, Louisville's calling card is its full-court defense. It could make a sand dune sweat and, should the department of justice decide water-boarding is forever out, just toss a couple of enemy combatants in for 40 minutes with Rick Pitino's crew and they'll probably spill everything this side of their mom's favorite roast beef recipe.

But even that defense has its limits. Like most pressure defenses, it's much more effective at home with a wild crowd whipping on the opposing team. The U of L held Notre Dame to a 92.1 efficiency rating at home. On the road the Irish torched the Cardinals for a 130.1 rating, and Luke Harangody beat back an interior defense that was softer than a lullaby for a season-best 32 points. Notre Dame won by 33 points.

Syracuse managed an 89.7 rating in Freedom Hall and put up a 94.2 effort in Madison Square Garden after the most grueling five-day stretch of basketball in Big East history. West Virginia managed a 83.8 on the road and a 99.8 on the road. In its toughest road trip, Connecticut posted a 101.2 in a 17-point victory.

And if you put these Cardinals on the charity stripe, they might as well be shooting at a coffee cup with a golf ball. They're 301st in the nation in free throw percentage. In close games, all those forfeited points add up. Memphis knows the words to that tune

But that isn't to say Louisville can't make a run at the Final Four. Only that, like everyone else, the margin for error is fashion-model thin.

Add up all of those sub-100 defensive numbers and even a 101.2 is still an excellent defensive effort, and Louisville's field goal woes have improved dramatically since that loss to Notre Dame. Plus, with its competent 3-point shooting factored in Louisville is now inside the top 60 in effective field goal percentage. But all it takes in the NCAA tournament is one slip-up to get a head start on spring break.

This year, even the favorites don't look like much more than a way to get your brackets busted royally.



In the East, Pittsburgh may have the toughest draw in the tournament. The Panthers have a hot Oklahoma State team or an all-offense Tennessee club in the second round. Florida State, a team with enough length that they could change the bulbs in the 35-second clock without the need of a step ladder could await in the Sweet 16. (Pitt beat Florida State by nine earlier in the year, but the Seminoles did a great job of slowing the Panther offense.) And while a possible Elite Eight matchup with Duke has already been written up as a de facto scrimmage before the Final Four, Mike Krzyzewski is 10-1 in regional finals and had this same Pitt team down by 16 at Madison Square Garden a year ago. Only a step-back 3-pointer by Levance Fields with 4.7 seconds left gave Pitt the one-point overtime victory despite DeJuan Blair dominating the Blue Devil interior for 15 points and 20 rebounds. Fields missed 72.3 percent of his 3-pointers last year.

In the South, North Carolina has to deal with its star point guard playing on just nine good toes. The Tar Heels don't have much in the way of competition, but no Final Four team since at least 2004 has had an adjusted defensive efficiency outside the top 25. The Heels are 35th and just seem to be collecting injuries the way most people are collecting unemployment checks.

And in the West, Connecticut only has one win over an NCAA tournament team in four tries since losing Jerome Dyson, and that was over equally banged up Marquette.

Like the Cardinals, Heels and Panthers, the Huskies have a shot if they can sidestep the madness.

But don't put any top seed through in ink, no matter how certain they seem. One or two will more than likely make the Final Four, but this isn't the year for the favorites.

This is the year for upsets.

So strap yourself in for a the wildest ride this side of John Daly in a golf cart.

Even you, Louisville.