From the very start of college basketball's preseason, North Carolina has been in the national championship discussion. Heck, before the preseason, the Tar Heels had people talking about an undefeated season. Obviously, that didn't materialize, but despite a Ty Lawson injury-aided early exit from the ACC Tournament, the Tar Heels grabbed a No. 1 seed for the dance.Oklahoma's never been far from the title talk either, and the Sooners join UNC here as the No. 2 seed. Neither has an easy road to the regional final -- talented teams like Syracuse, Gonzaga and Arizona State are all lurking, but the possibility for an epic Carolina-Oklahoma brouhaha looks strong.
Storylines
Will Blake Griffin and Tyler Hansbrough get to meet? Tell me the committee wasn't foaming at the mouth thinking about this potential matchup. All roads lead to a potential No. 1-seed North Carolina vs. No. 2-seed Oklahoma showdown in the elite eight, and that game could feature an absolutely epic low-post collision between the last two national players of the year.
Does Syracuse have anything left? It's not easy to make a long conference-tournament run, then travel for the start of the NCAA Tournament and put forth a spectacular effort. If any team is ripe for a tournament collapse, it might be the 'Cuse, which will be scrambling to regroup after its lengthy Big East run. Stephen F. Austin might not provide too much resistance in the opener, but Arizona State or Temple could keep the Orange busy.
Welcome back, Michigan: For the first time since 1998, the Wolverines heard their name called on Selection Sunday (and not by an NIT representative on the phone). Michigan's early wins over UCLA and Duke obviously loomed large. The draw is a tough one -- the Wolverines open with Clemson, then likely would get Oklahoma if they advance -- but just getting in counts huge in this case.
LSU leads the SEC ... uh ... charge: The Tigers are the highest-seeded of the three SEC teams in the field, getting bumped to a No. 8 seed after falling in the conference semifinals. Is there any chance they can carry the SEC's torch? Well, a first-round meeting with a dangerous Butler squad could end things quick.
Point guard injuries: Lawson's health status for Carolina is obviously the biggest question mark out there, but Illinois is dealing with an issue of its own. Starting point guard Chester Frazier, one of the team's leaders, hurt his finger in practice before the Big Ten Tournament and might miss the dance.
Team That'll Break Your Bracket
Western Kentucky (Honorable mention: Michigan): Frazier's injury certainly opens the door for the Hilltoppers to walk through with an upset, and they enter the tournament hot having won seven straight. They've also tested themselves this season, playing three teams that made the field. Doesn't sound overly impressive? Well, how about this then: WKU dumped Louisville, the No. 1 overall, by 14 points in November.
Team That'll Break Your Heart
Syracuse (Honorable mention: Oklahoma): We've already talked about the potential post-Big East fallout effect for Syracuse. Either the Orange will stay on their roll, or they'll fall off the map after expending so much energy in New York. Oklahoma's on here because either Clemson or Michigan would provide a difficult second-round matchup -- both teams have playing styles that will be tough to prepare for in less than 48 hours.
Predictions
Round 1: North Carolina over Radford; LSU over Butler; Western Kentucky over Illinois; Gonzaga over Akron; Arizona State over Temple; Syracuse over Stephen F. Austin; Clemson over Michigan; Oklahoma over Morgan State
Round 2: North Carolina over LSU; Gonzaga over Western Kentucky; Arizona State over Syracuse; Oklahoma over Clemson
Sweet 16: North Carolina over Gonzaga; Oklahoma over Arizona State
Elite 8: North Carolina over Oklahoma
Bracket Busters
Florida State Seminoles: How tall are the Seminoles? Let's just say they could change every light bulb in your house without borrowing a ladder. They're long and athletic and have Toney Douglas, a dynamic guard who is exactly the type of player you want to avoid in the NCAA tournament.
Kevin C. Cox, Getty Images
American Eagles: Coach Jeff Jones says he hasn't watched the whole tape from last year's opening-round loss to Tennessee, but the Vols might not have either. American put a scare into Tennessee last year and return with seven seniors, including Garrison Carr, the school's all-time leading 3-point shooter.
Evan Vucci, AP
Siena Saints: How do we know Siena can turn your brakcets into scrap paper in a single game? The Saints did it last year, dispatching Vanderbilt as a No. 13 seed. Led by Kenny Hansbrouck, they return their three top scorers from a year ago and played a schedule that took them to Kansas and Pittsburgh.
Tim Roske, AP
Virginia Commonwealth Rams: Mike Krzyzewski couldn't stop this team in the opening round two years ago, and the Rams have only gotten better. Back is point guard Eric Maynor, who almost single-handedly beat Duke and this time he's part of one of the best inside-outside combos in college basketball with double-double forward Larry Sanders. They don't have the depth of a power conference school, but they've probably got better coaching with Anthony Grant, Billy Donovan's former right-hand man.
Scott k. Brown, AP
Boston College Eagles: The Eagles seem to be a team in need of motivation. They knocked off North Carolina in Chapel Hill only to lose to Harvard. They beat Duke only to lose to N.C. State and then came within a single point of knocking Duke off again in the ACC tournament. Needless to say, no one takes teams lightly in the NCAA tournament, so good luck stopping a fired up Tyrese Rice.
John Bazemore, AP
West Virginia: You might like the Mountaineers, but the computers love them. A year after their surprising run to the Sweet 16, West Virginia is one of only three teams with efficiency ratings in the top 16 on both offense and defense, a great sign that they'll outperform their seed. The other two? Duke and Gonzaga.
Julie Jacobson, AP
Gonzaga: Gonzaga turned a Cinderella 1999 run into a regular spot in the NCAA tournament and has now almost made the leap in the public's mind to overrated major. But this year, the 'Zags are for real. They've lost just once since January and are the only team in the nation in the top 10 in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency.
Jae C. Hong, AP
North Dakota State Bison: They punched their ticket to the dance in their first opportunity (Take notes, Northwestern) and have a great formula for mid-major success, an excellent senior core and a great touch from 3-point range. The Bison shot better than 40 percent from long range, 10th best in the nation.
Eric Landwehr, AP
BYU Cougars: The Cougars are rated 18th in the nation by Ken Pomeroy, which suggests they could vastly out-perform their seed. They haven't lost a game by more than six points since Jan. 17 and do the single most important thing in basketball well, shoot. They're effective field goal percentage is seventh in the nation.
Ethan Miller, Getty Images
Michigan Wolverines: The Wolverines have already proven they can beat the nation's best, ousting UCLA on a neutral court in November and dumping Duke at home in December, and they're exactly the kind of team that can cause trouble in any one-game scenario -- nearly half of all Michigan shots are 3-pointers. Don't pick them to win six, but watch out in the first round.
Jonathan Daniel, Getty Images
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
3-16-2009 @ 12:37AM
ryan said...
Honestly I think you may be underestimating Stephen F. Austin. I know it's a long shot, and I'm banking on 'Cuse not being able to maintain the mo, but I think SFA might be able to shoot over Cuse's zone, and SFA's D is going to hurt 'Cuse's pace. I think they are going to stick it to the Orange and make it a close one, if not the upset.
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