Things haven't gone quite according to plan in the Big 12 this year, but it's still been another successful year for the conference. As expected, Oklahoma has been a force to be reckoned with, led by national player of the year favorite Blake Griffin. But while Texas has failed to meet expectations after the departure of D.J. Augustin, two surprising contenders have emerged.
Nobody really gave defending national champion Kansas much of a chance coming in to the year, and with good reason as they'd lost seven of their top eight contributors to either graduation or the NBA. But Bill Self's squad didn't miss a beat, as Sherron Collins has thrived in an increased role, Cole Aldrich has shown last year's breakout performance against North Carolina in the Final Four was no fluke, and Tyshawn Taylor has emerged from a talented freshman class.
While the Jayhawks' Big 12 regular-season title was quite unexpected, Missouri's 12-4 finish may have been more of a surprise. The Tigers were picked to finish seventh, but seniors Leo Lyons and DeMarre Carroll led Mike Anderson's fast-paced bunch to big wins over Texas, Kansas, and Oklahoma. And while there's some clear separation after the top three, the Big 12 should get another three into the big dance, unless something goes horribly wrong on Wednesday.
Matchups
Wednesday: Nebraska (8) vs. Baylor (9); Texas (5) vs. Colorado (12); Oklahoma St. (7) vs. Iowa St. (10); Texas A&M (6) vs. Texas Tech (11).
Thursday: 8/9 Winner vs. Kansas (1); 5/12 Winner vs. Kansas St. (4); 7/10 Winner vs. Oklahoma (2); 6/11 Winner vs. Missouri (3)
You can view the bracket and times here (PDF).
What Teams Want
Protected seeds: Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri
One more win: Texas, Oklahoma St., Texas A&M
Still alive: Kansas St., Nebraska
On way home: Baylor, Iowa St., Texas Tech, Colorado
Storylines
Avoiding the Dreaded "Bad Loss"
The Longhorns, Cowboys, and Aggies are all currently projected to be in the NCAA tournament, but none can truly be considered locks. The team in best shape is Texas, but they're also facing the worst team in round one, and thus have the potential to add the ugliest loss to their resume. Even so, it's very unlikely that they'll lose to the Buffaloes, and although they'd have to sweat it out if they did, the Longhorns are probably in regardless.
Texas A&M, winners of six in a row, is in the most precarious position, as they're favored by just 6.5 points against a Texas Tech team that beat Kansas by 19 just last week. The odds are that they, too, will hear their name called on Sunday even with a loss, but it's really best not to test fate on this type of thing.
Finally, Oklahoma State, currently projected as an eight seed, might be in the best shape of all three. They finished 9-7 in the Big 12, and have a solid non-conference resume, with wins over MAAC champion Siena, Rhode Island, and Tulsa, and nothing even vaguely resembling a bad loss. Losing to Iowa State also wouldn't look nearly as bad as falling to Colorado, as the Cyclones at least managed to muster four home wins during conference play.
Can the Sooners Reclaim the Top Spot?
At 22-1 in mid-February, Oklahoma looked to be cruising toward both a Big 12 regular season title and a No. 1 seed in the NCAAs. A combination of the injury to Blake Griffin and a daunting schedule down the stretch derailed the former hope, but they're still alive for a top seed. It will probably take a three-game winning streak in Oklahoma City though, and that's going to be tough, as their draw is far from easy.
Their Thursday opponent will likely be Oklahoma St., whom the Sooners beat by just four at home last Saturday. And it gets tougher from their; if the seeds hold, they'll have to beat both Missouri and Kansas to win the title. The upside there is those would be two very quality wins, so it'd be hard to deny them a No. 1 seed after a win Saturday afternoon.
Thriving Under the Bright Lights
Despite what the polls would indicate, the two best teams in Big 12 play this season were actually Kansas and Missouri. Most people know about the Jayhawks, who have beaten Oklahoma, Mizzou, and Texas over the last two weeks. The Tigers got off to a great start, at 11-2 in conference, but have struggled in their last two road games, losing to KU by 25 and A&M by 10. This weekend, with potential games against both Oklahoma and Kansas, will provide them with a chance to prove themselves at a neutral (or, in the former case, potentially hostile) site.
Predictions
Day one: Baylor over Nebraska, Texas over Colorado, Oklahoma St. over Iowa St., Texas A&M over Texas Tech.
Quarterfinals: Kansas over Baylor, Texas over Kansas St., Oklahoma over Oklahoma St., Missouri over Texas A&M.
Semifinals: Kansas over Texas, Missouri over Oklahoma
Championship: Kansas over Missouri
