While the NCAA tournament bubble isn't a particularly tight place this year, there are some conference tournaments that can still put the squeeze on for March Madness hopefuls. These are the conferences expecting one or two bids, but, should an upset happen along the way, could put the bubble on a diet in a hurry.
Certainly, every conference tournament with at least one lock team can have a team that will shock everyone and win their conference tournament. Realistically that just does not happen too often.
Really, there are only five conference tournaments that can be expected to shrink the bubble:
- Conference USA
- Horizon
- Atlantic 10
- Mountain West
- SEC
In Conference USA, it has been all Memphis for the last couple of years. No one has even able to win a single game against John Calipari's team. The Tigers are a lock, and will be the only team going unless there is a tremendous upset.
Chalk: Butler Bulldogs
Going into the season, Cleveland State was supposed to challenge Butler for Horizon League dominance. The Vikings lost both games to the Bulldogs by a total of four points. They have a third chance on Tuesday night on Butler's home court for the Horizon League Championship.
Chalk: Xavier Musketeers or Dayton Flyers
The Atlantic 14 10 has only two teams that are sure for the NCAA tournament in Xavier and Dayton. There are two longshot bubble teams that could change the whole story in Rhode Island and Temple. Both have knocked off major conference opponents. Then there are teams like Duquesne and St. Joe's that have gotten big wins this in the conference.
Chalk: Utah or BYU
The Mountain West is a nightmare for all other bubble teams. They have two teams that look like locks in Utah and BYU. They also have three teams that could very likely tighten the bubble. The one plus is that UNLV and SDSU face each other in their first game of the MWC Tournament, so one of them will be eliminated from the bubble.
The nightmare scenario for non-MWC fans would have Utah and BYU go down in their semi-finals to two of the bubble teams. New Mexico and UNLV or SDSU make it to the championship game, and it is a close game. It would shrink the bubble by one spot and strengthen the resume for the one other bubble team from the MWC.
Chalk: LSU or Tennessee
Last year it was the SEC that shocked everyone with Georgia grabbing the automatic bid and taking one more spot from the bubble. This year, the team that has many worried is Auburn. The Tigers do not have realistic bubble hopes, but have won eight of their last nine. The way the SEC has been this year, though, anyone in the field could get hot and take the automatic bid.
Then there are the two bubble teams of South Carolina and Florida. They can go either way. A quick loss and they are staring at the NIT. Win a couple games and they are likely in the NCAA.
